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There is not yet hard evidence of where people contract COVID-19 in San Francisco. And, despite being staffed with contact tracers, public health departments have yet to say much definitive to guide the public other than “stay home.”
San Francisco has 244 people working on contact tracing whenever a new positive coronavirus case emerges in the city – but with that now happening around 100 times a day, or more, the task is obviously enormous. And as Heather Knight noted in his last column Chronicle, “Many people who have tested positive for the virus in San Francisco do not know how they have contracted, and the research team of the city’s contacts often can’t help them find out. “
The skyrocketing we see in SF may not be as extreme as it is elsewhere in the state or country, but its timing can still be telling. A number of San Franciscans are probably returned to work in offices in October, as the case declined – and others have probably started to relax about the dinners. Part of the blame has been blamed on Halloween parties – with the younger ones especially unable to resist the urge to congregate indoors at costume parties. And we can not ignore the fact that the surge began to appear in late October about three weeks after the indoor meals began to be allowed in the limited capacity in town.
Many experts and experts, including several cited by the Chronicle, blame the holidays inside homes and other social gatherings for the current outbreak locally – and this may be the case.
But a New York Times article published today cites epidemiologists as being far from some of the types of gatherings that are causing the virus to spread at the macro level. A figure cited, via contact tracing data in Colorado, suggests that out of 10,000 cases with decent tracing data, around 450 cases have come out of bars, restaurants, casinos and bowling alleys, and only 81 are from small social gatherings, while 4,000 were. of correctional facilities, 3,300 dated back to colleges and 2,400 to nursing homes.
Knight spoke to a restaurant waiter in San Francisco who recently tested Becca Camping, 24, positive for COVID, who works at International Smoke, owned by Michael Mina and Ayesha Curry. She said she did not socializing and has left her apartment to go shopping only when it did not work, but during the latter part of October, when the restaurant resumed its meal indoors, she worked five shifts a week. And she said that while she was masked, she served tables where people were often unmasked throughout their meals.
“You can do everything right and wear a mask and not go out, and you can still get it,” Camping tells the Chronicle.
So far, none of Camping’s colleagues have tested positive for the virus, and she remains isolated in her apartment with unpleasant but not serious symptoms.
San Francisco has decided to suspend indoor dining effective Nov. 14, in the hopes that this will help the city flatten the curve again – and it is possible that the state’s ‘purple’ crossing this week results in the closure of more businesses. , including indoor gymnasiums and cinemas.
The Chronicle notes that between October 21 and November 10, the city saw a particular demographic shift in COVID-19 infections – an increasing proportion of whites contracting the disease. While the Mission and Bayview neighborhoods have been the hardest hit over the past eight months, the past few weeks have shown similar infection rates between the Marina and the Tenderloin, and the percentage of infections among 18 to 30 years also increased.
Chances are it is the combination of loosening up everyone’s behaviors, in addition to changing restaurant rules etc. Pandemic fatigue is real and by mid-October people were starting to let their guard down, no doubt. And it’s perhaps telling that we haven’t seen significant outbreaks related to SF restaurants, especially during the six weeks that indoor dining was allowed.
Stay alert! Keep your Thanksgivings small or not at all!
Previously: San Francisco likely to drop to ‘purple’ level next week, curfew
Photo: Marcus Urbenz
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