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The new daily number of COVID-19 cases in California has declined or leveled off since mid-August, but a new peak has grown rapidly over the past month. Public health experts warn the spread of rates could accelerate with family reunions and holiday celebrations in the coming weeks – a concern that has prompted Gov. Gavin Newsom to order a limited COVID curfew to leave from Saturday 21 November.
To see where the virus is spreading, we calculate the rate of new cases in each county, the number of cases reported in the previous 14 days per 10,000 population, and then track that data over time. The animated map shows how – and when – the coronavirus spread around California from April 1 to November 18.
By early April, the virus was most prevalent in Bay Area and southern California counties, then became more concentrated in Los Angeles and Imperial counties by the end of the month, spurred by widespread community transmission. In May, the virus spread further into the state as large prison outbreaks spiked in Santa Barbara, Kings County and elsewhere.
In June, the virus intensified in many areas of southern California, following Memorial Day festivities, and began to accelerate in farm worker communities in the Central Valley. It continued to spread rapidly from late June to mid-July. Then, with new restrictions in place, the daily new cases fell below 4,000 and stayed there for almost two months.
In late summer, the map cools, with case rates remaining low almost everywhere until the end of October. But in recent weeks, new cases have increased in almost all counties, with some counties spared at the start of the pandemic being hit very hard.
The map suggests that the decision to stay at home early in California likely spared the state from the early exponential growth seen in places like Italy and New York. But cases exploded this summer after restrictions were eased, dwindled as clamps snapped back into place, then started to rise again when things opened up again.
We are now waiting to see if new cases will continue to increase, how many, and for how long.
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