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Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, called the current stage of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States a “pandemic of the unvaccinated”.
The same is true in the San Francisco Bay Area.
COVID-19 infections and hospitalizations are on the rise in California, mainly due to the highly contagious delta variant and unvaccinated individuals. The California Department of Public Health released data Thursday showing that for the week of July 7-14, the average rate of cases among unvaccinated people is 13 cases per 100,000 population and the average rate of cases among those vaccinated. is significantly less than 2 cases per 100,000 residents.
While Los Angeles County has seen the most extreme increase in the number of cases and hospitalizations, the San Francisco Bay Area is also seeing a slight increase.
Anecdotes of groundbreaking cases and new mask recommendations for even fully vaccinated people (here’s why a UCSF expert said he’s following the recommendation) have some residents concerned about the risk the delta variant poses to those who are vaccinated and ready to resume their lives before the pandemic.
We reached out to all nine Bay Area counties for information on cases of discovery and the risk posed to those vaccinated.
New cases
As cases increase in a world of many vaccinations, many people wonder exactly how many new infections are occurring in unvaccinated people compared to those who are vaccinated.
We asked the nine counties in the Bay Area to share this information, and although we received data in various forms, it showed a clear trend. The majority of new cases occur in unvaccinated people.
Only two Bay Area counties – Marin and Contra Costa County – post new case data online daily by vaccination status.
Other counties, including Santa Clara, San Mateo and Napa, have said they are working to make this information public in the near future.
San Francisco said it continues to review new cases by vaccine status and based on a preliminary analysis of cases between April 1 and July 8, the daily case rate is 15 cases per 100,000 population. among those who are not vaccinated, and 5.8 cases per 100,000 population among those who are vaccinated.
“As for the cases, we know San Francisco would have a lot more cases if the vaccines didn’t work to prevent COVID-19,” said the San Francisco Joint Information Center which provides updates on the pandemic in a press release.
Contra Costa County is currently reporting 25.3 new cases per 100,000 unvaccinated per day and 4.3 per 100,000 people vaccinated, the county scorecard revealed.
Marin has the highest vaccination rate in the state with 92.5% of residents over 12 receiving at least one dose, and the 14-day daily case rate on July 21 was 16.3 new cases per 100,000 in unvaccinated people and 3.9 new cases per 100,000 in vaccinated people. people.
Napa County said 82% of new cases are in people who have not been vaccinated and Alameda said most of the cases in the county are in people who have not been vaccinated.
Dr George Rutherford, epidemiologist at UCSF, said it was no surprise that we were seeing groundbreaking cases, even in highly vaccinated counties.
“If you increase the number of people vaccinated and you don’t have as many unvaccinated people, the percentage of new cases among the vaccinated group may seem higher than expected,” he said. “… What is also important is that breakouts, even from delta, are unlikely to cause serious illness.”
Serious illness
Every county in the Bay Area has said the overwhelming majority of people hospitalized with COVID-19 are not vaccinated. The vaccine is very effective in protecting against serious illness, although a specific rate cannot be determined because most emerging infections are asymptomatic or mild.
“Most vaccinated people who get tested have symptoms or have been in contact with someone with COVID,” said Dr Monica Gandhi, another epidemiologist at UCSF. “We don’t know how many breakthroughs exist among people who are asymptomatic and not getting tested. “
If it turns out that there are many undetected breakouts, the chances of getting severe delta disease after being vaccinated are very, very low. Gandhi said it was not clear whether the risk amounted to a cold or a seasonal flu, as most areas do not mass test asymptomatic vaccinated individuals.
The San Francisco Department of Health said less than 1% of fully vaccinated people who have had breakthrough cases of COVID-19 have been hospitalized – a figure that has remained constant even since the arrival of the delta variant. Alameda County did not provide details on the number of hospitalizations that were breakthrough infections, but said the “vast” majority of patients were not vaccinated. In Alameda, there are currently 105 COVID-19 patients in the hospital.
Santa Clara County said none of the 85 patients currently hospitalized with COVID-19 at the county’s three hospitals (Valley Medical Center, O’Connor and Saint Louise) were fully vaccinated.
There are currently five hospitalizations in Napa County, and four of the five are unvaccinated. Contra Costa, Marin, Solano and San Mateo counties do not have information on the number of fully vaccinated COVID-19 hospital patients.
In the Bay Area, there are only two known infections that have resulted in death, both in Sonoma County. However, a spokesperson for the county health department said in an email that the two were over 90 and had several underlying health issues, making these cases unrepresentative of most. revolutionary infections.
While the delta variant causes an increase in cases and hospitalizations, data from across the Bay Area suggests that those who are fully vaccinated have a very low risk of serious illness resulting in hospitalization or death.
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