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The final answer is approaching.
On Sunday at noon after the end of the Championship weekend, ESPN will air the college football qualifying round-up show to reveal the four teams that will compete for the domestic championship.
As that day approaches, we take another look at the Buckeyes’ place in the most likely brackets of the playoffs.
There is, of course, one major caveat: If Ohio state loses this weekend’s Big Ten Championship game, it seals the fate of the team. It’s nearly impossible to imagine a scenario in which the Buckeyes would enter as a 5-1 team with a loss to Northwestern in the conference title game.
But if they win? They are almost certainly in the field of the four-team playoffs.
Where would they be sown? Who did they correspond with? That’s what we’re looking at on Friday afternoon.
Editor’s Note: All of the records in this article are what they would be in the given scenario, which is why they differ throughout.
- Alabama (11-0)
- Clemson (10-1)
- Ohio State (6-0)
- Notre Dame (10-1)
This is, by far, the easiest scenario to project. If you’re on the college football playoff selection committee, you might even secretly encourage the weekend to play like this to make it easier for you.
It’s pretty straightforward: Alabama defeats Florida in the SEC Championship game, Clemson takes revenge for losing to Notre Dame and dominates the Fighting Irish in the ACC title game, and Ohio State wins the Big Ten by beating Northwestern.
Alabama would clearly retain the lead. Clemson and the state of Ohio would go up one rank. Notre-Dame would fall from No. 2 to No. 4 with its only loss at the hands of the Tigers. Depending on how the games go, maybe the Buckeyes could claim to be # 2 instead of # 3, but that wouldn’t change the clashes at all. It’s hard to imagine this scenario unfolding and a team outside of these four ending up on the pitch.
To win a national title with this provision, the Buckeyes would have to go through Clemson and either Alabama or Notre Dame. Buckle up your belt.
- Alabama (11-0)
- Clemson (10-1)
- Notre Dame (10-1)
- Ohio State (6-0)
We might as well come up with a variation of the above scenario.
What if the state of Ohio beats Northwestern but doesn’t do so convincingly? What if Clemson-Notre Dame in the ACC Championship game was a thriller and Clemson barely scored a win? It should
There’s an obvious question: Would the playoff committee really have a third game between Clemson and Notre Dame in the semifinals? Even though committee members say they wouldn’t take this into consideration, it’s hard to imagine that they don’t at least consider whether they would like to make it a reality. If that happened, however, the state of Ohio would get the Crimson Tide in the semifinals.
- Alabama (11-0)
- Notre Dame (11-0)
- Ohio State (6-0)
- Texas A&M (8-1)
Things get a lot less clear if something other than Alabama, Clemson, and Ohio State all win this weekend. The most likely of those teams to lose on Saturday is Clemson. So, this is the scenario that is presented here.
Alabama beats Florida and clings to first place. Notre Dame beats Clemson and remains No. 2. Ohio State beats Northwestern and moves up to No. 3.
Who is the fourth team in this case? Most people would rank Texas A&M, which faces Tennessee as the road favorites with two touchdowns to end the season. The Aggies were smoked by Alabama earlier this year, but they also come in fifth on the weekend due to their seven wins, including one against the Gators. They would be the favorites to be the fourth and final team in the playoffs if they ran their business in Knoxville.
If that happens, the Buckeyes would get an undefeated Notre Dame side in the semifinals with a potential clash with Alabama with a national championship on the line.
- Notre Dame (11-0)
- Alabama (11-0)
- Ohio State (6-0)
- Texas A&M (8-1)
A minor variation of the scenario directly above this one that could have significant implications for the state of Ohio.
Would the selection committee consider putting Notre Dame first over Alabama if the Fighting Irish won impressively this weekend? This should be ignored – especially since it would prevent a Crimson Tide-Aggies rematch in the semi-finals.
Instead, he hosts a first-round match between Ohio State and Alabama, with Notre Dame taking on Texas A&M.
- Alabama (11-0)
- Notre Dame (11-0)
- Ohio State (6-0)
- Clemson (9-2) / Cincinnati (9-0) / State of Iowa (9-2) or Oklahoma (8-2)
Is there a scenario where Alabama, Notre Dame, and Ohio State all win but Texas A&M doesn’t enter? Of course. The Aggies are at a loss from elimination, and even then it’s conceivable – though unlikely – that it could play out that way and the selection committee would ask another team to hope for them.
If Clemson’s two losses were both against Notre Dame and the two close competitions, that might do the trick. An undefeated Cincinnati – who plays Tulsa for the AAC title on Friday night – appears to have a quality CV, although the Bearcats remain in 8th place, which is not a good sign for their prospects. The two-game winner of the Big 12 championship game between Iowa State and Oklahoma would be in the mix.
From an Ohio State perspective: determining the last team on the field might not matter much. The Buckeyes would face Notre Dame with Alabama likely on hold – or vice versa – provided they get the No.4 seed.
- Notre Dame (11-0)
- Ohio State (6-0)
- Alabama (10-1)
- Florida (9-2) / Texas A&M (8-1) / Cincinnati (9-0) / State of Iowa (9-2) or Oklahoma (8-2)
Notre Dame defeats Clemson. The state of Ohio beats the Northwest. Alabama loses to Florida.
It may not be too likely, but it is possible.
That would be pretty straightforward for the Buckeyes: They would face Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide in the semifinals. There might be a debate among the committee members as to which team would get the second seed, but that wouldn’t matter once they were on the pitch.
Most of the attention would be focused on who gets the right to play Notre Dame in the semifinals. It would likely come down to a two-loss SEC champion in Florida or a one-loss Texas A&M team that beat the Gators, with Cincinnati and Iowa State or Oklahoma in hiding.
- Clemson (10-1)
- Notre Dame (10-1)
- Alabama (10-1)
- Ohio State (6-0)
The final storyline to watch is perhaps the most difficult area to project out of all that includes a Buckeye win.
Clemson defeats Notre Dame. Florida beats Alabama. The state of Ohio beats the Northwest.
Dabo Swinney’s Tigers would likely become the No. 1 seed as the ACC champion who just beat the Fighting Irish. Given that the state of Ohio is currently behind a one-loss ACC team (Clemson), it would therefore seem logical to stay behind a new one-loss team in this scenario (Notre Dame), but the committee could possibly look at the Buckeyes’ Big Ten Championship as a reason to place them as high as No.2. Alabama, even if they lose to the Gators, would likely be on the court, and their wins over Texas A&M, Georgia , Auburn and Missouri could propel the Crimson Tide to a loss over the Buckeyes.
Either way, one thing is clear after doing this drill: If Ohio State wins the Big Ten Championship game, it will likely have to beat two of the current top three seeds – No.1 Alabama. , No. 2 Notre Dame and No. 2. 3 Clemson – on the way to a national title. We’ll figure it all out on Sunday.
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