What will the new coronavirus restrictions in California look like?

Gov. Gavin Newsom’s warning that California will soon face ‘more dramatic’ coronavirus restrictions in an attempt to blunt an alarming spike in COVID-19 infections threatening to overwhelm hospitals rekindles memories of frantic lockdowns last spring.

But even as we move into what epidemiologists warn this could be one of the darkest and deadliest days in the pandemic, there is little indication at this point that California is going to return to a standstill. also widespread and almost total of everyday life.

Instead, bookstores and barbers that closed in March could stay open this time around, albeit with much smaller capacities. Park and beach closures appear unlikely to return, although travel limits may make these destinations less accessible. Outdoor restaurant meals have a chance to survive the winter. These are some of the potential changes highlighted by epidemiologists, who have cited new restrictions enacted by Santa Clara and Los Angeles counties as examples of what could be next for the state as a whole.

“We see the writing on the wall and we need to take these steps now,” said Kirsten Bibbins-Domingo, professor and director of the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics at the University of California, San Francisco. Still, she said, “No one wants a full stop.”

Newsom has yet to announce the new health commands its office plans to roll out in the coming days. He said on Monday that the restrictions would “fall in line” with the Spring Stay Home decision, but with unspecified changes. It is not known how the order might affect schools.

With the effect of Thanksgiving gatherings and travel still unclear, data compiled by this news organization paints a dire picture of an accelerated pandemic in California. More than 9,000 people are being treated in hospitals for the virus, more than at any time in the pandemic, and the seven-day average of new confirmed cases is also higher than ever, at 14,058 per day.

The vast majority of California’s nearly 40 million people live in counties – including all but Marin in the Bay Area – that already have the tightest restrictions under the multi-level system in the state. for coronavirus limits, as authorities consider the spread of the deadly disease in those areas to be “widespread.” State rules for these counties prohibit high-risk activities, such as eating indoors at restaurants or exercising in gyms, and require other businesses to limit their indoor capabilities.

But as the winter wave of new coronavirus infections and hospitalizations grows, with Newsom warning on Monday that California could run out of intensive care unit beds by the middle of this month, the state is exploring new limits in – beyond those he already considered to be the most difficult. .

Last month Newsom instituted what it called a “limited stay at home order” banning gatherings and forcing non-essential businesses to close between 10 p.m. and 5 a.m. A future state ordinance could extend this directive to hourly: The Los Angeles County Order of Officials announced last Friday that it is asking residents to “stay home as much as possible” and not get together with people outside their home. The county has also closed outdoor restaurants, forcing restaurants to revert to the take-out-only model from the spring, a step Santa Clara County has not taken.

Santa Clara County rules place strict limits on travel, telling those who have arrived over 150 miles to self-isolate for 14 days and ordering people to stay at its hotels only for essential trips.

It could be one of the most important steps to limit the spread of COVID-19 during the holidays. However, governments are reluctant to aggressively enforce such orders, leaving a weary public to avoid the temptation to reunite with friends and family after a trying year. Bibbins-Domingo said she hopes encouraging news about the new coronavirus vaccines, which are expected to start distributing to healthcare workers later this month and to the general public next year, will help overcome this fatigue.

“There is reason to be hopeful, and I hope we can communicate that help is around the corner,” said Bibbins-Domingo. “But we really have to fight for the next few months.”

Bibbins-Domingo and others said they expected the state’s new rules to reflect lessons public health officials learned more than eight months after the initial lockdown orders. Among them: that contaminated surfaces do not pose as much of a risk as once feared, outdoor activities are much safer than indoors, and masks are much more effective than many initially thought in limiting the spread, even indoors.

Some of these lessons are already emerging. While non-essential retailers and personal service businesses such as barber shops were closed in the spring, orders from Santa Clara and Los Angeles counties keep them operating – at very limited capacities and forcing all. shoppers to wear masks – thanks to what is expected to be a crucial holiday period for many after a difficult year.

“They’re trying to balance the economic damage done to small businesses,” said Dr. Arthur Reingold, head of the epidemiology and biostatistics division at the UC Berkeley School of Public Health, “by minimizing mortality, quite frankly.

In Santa Clara County, where retailers are limited to 10% of their pre-pandemic capacity, that means Parvin Abdollahi can only allow one customer at a time to enter Penelope Boutique, his clothing store in the Santana Row Shopping Center. Sometimes other customers are willing to wait, Abdollahi said, but often “after 10 or 15 minutes they just give up.”