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That’s the million dollar question everyone asks about COVID-19: When will life get back to normal? And will the school be open this fall?
The answers are all over the map – from governors in Texas and Mississippi declaring their states already open and lifting mask warrants, to health experts worryingly warning that the virus will always persist.
The reality, however, depends a lot on how you define “normal”. And, if enough Americans rally around for a photo this summer, it might not be as depressing as you think.
Experts say fall could become the season of a ‘new normal’ in which the world slowly reopens and people reconnect but with masks, routine tests and maybe even vaccine cards to enable them. to enter cinemas or restaurants.
“It’s going to be so gradual that we probably won’t even notice it,” said Howard Markel, University of Michigan medical historian and pediatrician. “It’s not a light switch or like V-Day – like it’s over, you know, we won! It’s not like that.”
So what could possibly derail it all? Infectious disease experts agree that at least 70 to 85% of the country must become immune to starve the virus. Markel said he was 90% favorable with such a stealthy virus.
“It all depends on how many people roll up their sleeves and get their shots, you see,” Markel told ABC News. “So that’s my fear, that’s what keeps me awake at night.”
Here’s what health experts say could happen this year:
Spring will be a time of uncertainty and possibly more deaths
The country is at a standstill with the virus. Even with a seven-day national average down 74% in just a few weeks, the United States still averages 64,000 new cases per day. This average is comparable to that of last fall, just before the explosion of cases during the holiday season.
These stalled progress means the country is on the verge of entering the season of spring break, graduation parties, family vacations and neighborhood gatherings with already high viral transmission, as a New, more transmissible variant originating in Britain is expected to become the most dominant strain of the virus in mid-March.
Health experts warn that with states like Texas and Mississippi now reopening and lifting mask warrants, there could be a final heartbreaking increase in new cases – followed weeks later by hospitalizations and deaths – as the nation is on the verge of mass vaccination.
“I know the idea of relaxing wearing a mask and going back to your daily activities is appealing. But we’re not there yet, ”said Dr. Rochelle Walensky, head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. “We have seen this film before. When prevention measures like mask warrants are canceled, cases increase.”
Fingers crossed, summer is becoming the season for mass vaccinations
If production can keep up, the United States expects to start in June with enough doses of the vaccine for 300 million Americans. Vaccines will always be limited to adults, with some available for adolescents 16 years and older.
“I think it’s a huge undertaking,” said Simone Wildes, infectious disease physician at South Shore Health in Massachusetts and ABC News medical contributor, of the mass vaccination rollout.
“But if we can do it in June, July… maybe we can have a decent summer. But it really depends on how things go in the next few months, ”she said.
Markel also predicted that by early July almost all of the “first acceptors” of the vaccine will have been able to get vaccinated. At this point, much of the nation might be able to expand their “pod” – slowly.
Markel said he still won’t recommend making an early deposit at a non-refundable beach house with extended family this summer.
Wildes agreed.
“Be flexible so that if you know people are not being vaccinated, if there is an increase in the number of cases, especially with the variants, we can cancel those plans,” Wildes said. “There is nothing wrong with making tentative plans, but I think we just need to be aware of the situation at that point.”
Drop could become the ‘new normal’, depending on number of Americans vaccinated
Dr Anthony Fauci said on Thursday that he now thinks that ‘in the fall, mid-autumn, the onset of winter’ everyone could go back to work, the kids will be in school and the kids will be in school. meals inside could hum again.
His prediction follows a White House announcement that a vaccine maker, Johnson & Johnson, would be able to ramp up its supply. But it would still take the summer months to roll out the vaccines.
“By the time we come to fall with the implementation of the immunization program, you are going to see something noticeable in the direction of getting back to normal and most likely will happen by the end of the year,” he said. said Fauci, the nation’s leading infectious disease specialist and chief medical adviser to President Joe Biden.
Dr William Schaffner, professor of preventive medicine and infectious diseases at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, said he preferred to put “normal” in quotes now because life would likely be very different. Online business meetings, for example, could become more common than crowded conference rooms ”if possible.
“Masks should be one of the last things there is,” Schaffner said. “They’re boring, they’re dumb, but they’re so efficient and so easy and so cheap. They wouldn’t be the first things I would take off; they would be the last.”
But if enough people are vaccinated, he agreed that schools and colleges should be able to open with low risk this fall, and the United States could see a brighter Thanksgiving.
“I predict we’ll be in this ‘new normal’ by the end of summer and fall, and we can all – hopefully – give thanks on Thanksgiving, in a more conventional way, sitting around. the table with our family, friends, loved ones, masked, thank and rejoice that we have gone through this terrible pandemic and that we have survived, ”said Schaffner.
Yet all of the experts interviewed by ABC News described some sort of cautious “wait and see” approach. Reluctance to vaccines among some Americans remains a problem. And if viral transmission in other countries remains high, the virus could mutate in a way that dissipates. effectiveness of vaccines – potentially endangering even those vaccinated.
“We could go back to some of the things we’re used to, but say we’re going to go back to normal – it won’t be the same,” Wildes said.
“I think it’s even going to be difficult for me to kiss people,” she added later.
When it is all over, whatever the months or years to come, Markel, who has spent 30 years studying pandemics, is sure of one thing: “We will forget everything”.
“We will continue on our merry way,” he said. “I’m telling you, I’ve studied a lot of pandemics. It’s the end. It’s like amnesia. And that’s what worries me.”
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