Who will the Penguins protect in the expansion draft?

Pretty much the only certainty of who the Pittsburgh Penguins will protect in Wednesday’s expansion draft is who they need to protect.

The core”.

Franchise stalwarts Sidney Crosby, Kris Letang and Evgeni Malkin each have lock-in clauses in their contracts and, under NHL rules, must be protected from selection by the new Seattle Kraken.

As for the rest? There are some obvious names the Penguins will include in their list of seven forwards, three defenders and a goalie.

And there are borderline choices that could end up in the Pacific Northwest when the season opens in October.

Who should the Penguins place on this list? Take this as an educated guess:

(To note: Players are listed with their salary cap reached.)

Before

Teddy Blueger, center ($ 2.2 million) – Having signed a two-year contract extension on Wednesday, Blueger’s importance has been heightened by the right knee injury that will likely put Malkin on the sidelines for part of the season. Depth in the middle is vital to the Penguins’ functioning, and Blueger, arguably the best defensive forward on the team, is a major part of that dynamic.

Sidney Crosby, center ($ 8.7 million) – As mentioned above, it must be protected by the rule.

Jake Guentzel, left winger ($ 6 million) – Not much thought needs to go into this one. Guentzel is young (26) with three years left in his contract and has established a chemistry with Crosby like few winger have ever done. As one of the most talented players on the roster, he’s not going anywhere anytime soon.

Kasperi Kapanen, right winger ($ 3.2 million) – Kapanen is a bit like a lesser version of Guentzel for the reasons listed above. He’s a restricted free agent pending next season, so the Penguins are still in control of his contract. And he established a chemistry with Malkin. Exposing him would make him a tempting target for the Kraken.

Evgeni Malkin, center ($ 9.5 million) – He must be protected by the rule.

Bryan Rust, right winger ($ 3.5 million) – As the stable and consistent player the Penguins have dressed for the past two seasons, protecting Rust offers minimal risk. The only risk lies in his contract status as he is expected to become an unrestricted free agent in the next offseason. A constant 20-goal threat that likely would have hit the 30-goal mark at least once had it not been for the pandemic disrupting the past two seasons, he could command a big payday next summer.

Brandon Tanev, left winger ($ 3.5 million) – There are more talented players the Penguins can protect, like fellow striker Jared McCann. But there aren’t many on the roster who are better than Tanev. One of the fastest skaters in the league, Tanev sets the tone for a team playing a tough game and may even tackle the occasional occasion. Protecting him from others would be more like not having a suitable replacement for what he offers.

Defenders

Brian Dumoulin ($ 4.1 million) – Perhaps the best defensive entity of the Penguins, Dumoulin is an obvious one to protect, even if he will be 30 years old on September 6th. One of the most respected voices in the dressing room, Dumoulin has a presence few on the roster can overshadow. And he’s the perfect counterweight to Letang, who is always willing to take risks in the rush.

Kris Letang ($ 7.25 million) – He must be protected by the rule.

Mike Matheson ($ 4.875 million) “Truth be told, the Penguins’ leadership probably wouldn’t mind breaking free from Matheson’s leviathan on a contract that’s still five years old.” Losing that cap would create a lot of flexibility to adjust the 2021-22 roster. But there really isn’t a big choice for the third defender that they can protect. Marcus Pettersson also has several years (four) and a large salary cap ($ 4,025,175) and offers less than Matheson’s skills. Matheson is not a good choice here, but he is the best among the Penguins.

Goalie

Tristan Jarry ($ 3.5 million) – Even after his terrible performance in the past playoffs, Jarry is the only goaltender capable of being a starter right now in the Penguins’ system. Even with all of his flaws, Jarry, 26, is not a lost cause. He can bounce back and prove he’s capable of being a franchise goalie. If exposed, his modest salary cap would make Jarry a tempting choice for the Kraken.

(To note: Not all first and second year pros, such as defenseman John Marino, are eligible to be selected in the expansion draft.)