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The recent decline means the state no longer runs the country in new cases per capita over the past week – that unwanted title is now held by Minnesota, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. South Dakota has outperformed its northern neighbor in per capita COVID-19 deaths. The State of the Garden of Peace ranked first in both indicators as recently as last week.
North Dakota is far from being out of the woods, and the state still has one of the worst COVID-19 outbreaks in the country. An increase in cases after the Thanksgiving holiday could reverse the latest positive trend – the effect of family reunions and travel over the past week likely would not yet be noticeable in COVID-19 data. But state epidemiologist Grace Njau is cautiously optimistic.
There is no singular explanation for the state’s decline in active cases, Njau said, but a combination of mask policies and late adoption of virus mitigation measures likely led to the recent good fortune.
Republican Gov. Doug Burgum announced a statewide mask requirement on November 13, but in the weeks leading up to the change, a patchwork of city, county, and tribal mask mandates formed when the local leaders took the matter into their own hands.
Fargo Mayor Tim Mahoney issued a mask warrant on October 19, and leaders from West Fargo, Grand Forks, Minot and Bismarck followed suit shortly thereafter. Njau said epidemiologists observed a drop in the estimated rate of spread of the virus a few weeks after local warrants passed through Cass County and the rest of the state.
Njau added that the “alarming” rates of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths in October and November may have given residents a “wake-up call” if they had previously neglected the wearing of masks and social distancing.
Hospitals across the state continue to grapple with serious staffing issues, and available hospital beds are scarce. Many nurses have been sidelined by the virus in recent months, and medical centers have recorded higher than normal admissions.
“The extra stretch for our healthcare workers and our healthcare systems may also have brought reality back to us,” Njau said in an email.
Njau noted that a drop in tests administered over the past week could also contribute to the decrease in known active cases.
She added that more than 300 residents are still hospitalized with the virus and the rapid rate of deaths has not subsided. Health officials say residents should remain diligent in monitoring mitigation measures and refrain from social gatherings until conditions improve.
The North Dakota Department of Health on Wednesday, December 2, announced 12 deaths from COVID-19, but another overall drop in active cases.
The deaths have come from across the state, including two from Burleigh County and one each from Cass, Foster, Grant, Griggs, McLean, Ransom, Stark, Stutsman, Walsh and Ward counties.
The department says 966 North Dakotans have succumbed to the disease since March. November was by far the deadliest month in the North Dakota pandemic, with 388 deaths from COVID-19.
At least 563 of the state’s deaths have occurred in nursing homes and other long-term care facilities. There are about 350 infected nursing home residents in the state and a dozen facilities have double-digit active cases among residents, including The Meadows on University in Fargo, which has 24 infected residents.
Over the past three weeks, active cases of COVID-19 have steadily declined, dropping to more than 10,000 on November 12. Today, 5,236 North Dakotans are known to be infected with the virus. Active cases have declined daily for over a week.
There are 301 residents hospitalized with the illness, down from 18 in the last day. Thirty eight residents carrying the virus are in intensive care.
On Wednesday, the health department reported 486 new cases, including:
- 92 of Cass County, which includes Fargo. The county has 1,040 active cases.
- 112 Burleigh County, which includes Bismarck. The county has 794 active cases. Another 24 new cases came from neighboring Morton County, which includes Mandan.
- 64 from Ward County, which includes Minot and 531 active cases.
About 9.2% of the 5,258 residents tested in the last batch tested positive, and an average of 11.9% of those tested in the last two weeks tested positive. Like the active cases, the positivity rate for the condition has declined over the past two weeks.
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