Why is COVID-19 on the rise in California and the Bay Area



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Coronavirus cases are on the rise in California again, and many may be wondering why.

Private gatherings, especially when moved indoors and without masks, appear to be a main cause.

“People are letting their guard down,” Governor Gavin Newsom said at a press conference this week.

Newsom noted that contact tracing data early indicates that Halloween gatherings and people moving indoors due to colder weather may be partly responsible for the increase in cases.

California Health and Human Services Secretary Dr Mark Ghaly added that information gathered by health officials in the various counties reveals that essential workers, places of worship and restaurants are in demand. origin of transmission in some counties.


But in all counties with outbreaks, he said health directors consistently point to private home gatherings as a “major source of the spread.”

“These masks, even with loved ones that we haven’t seen in a while, are really important,” Ghaly said. “This feeling that we are safe, because we know someone, that is not the case with COVID. It is no surprise that we see household gatherings as a major source of transmission, but at the same time time is a place where we can make the importance of inroads, where our own choices can reduce this transmission and not only help the rates of transmission drop in our communities, but also help move our economy forward. “

In addition, this week, Ghaly described activities that the state has deemed most risky, including those where you see people outside of your home, especially for a long time, and where it is difficult to wear a mask all the time, such as Eating and Drinking.

Activities where it is difficult to stand at least 6 feet from others are also a problem. Ghaly gave a group seated around a small table playing a board game or sharing a meal as something to be avoided. Getting together in places that do not allow a lot of fresh air to circulate can increase the risk of transmission.

Coronavirus cases have increased in the United States since the start of fall, while California has generally remained immune to an explosion of cases.

But in early October, the Golden State began to experience a slight uptick, and now the growth rate is accelerating. California became the second state after Texas to exceed one million cases on Thursday. Health officials are worried.

“The level of COVID transmission is higher in this environment than what we have seen in the past two weeks,” Ghaly said.

The increase in transmission is of concern as the weather changes to colder conditions and people are more likely to bring activities indoors.

The seven-day positivity rate (the percentage of people who tested positive for the virus of all people tested) was 4.2% on Tuesday. This is the first time the positivity rate has exceeded 4% since late August, Ghaly said.

Newsom introduced a color-coded level system that sorts counties into four levels – “purple” (widespread), “red” (substantial), “orange” (moderate), or “yellow” (minimal) – measuring the spread of COVID-19 and dictate the types of businesses and activities allowed to open. This week, 11 counties fell back to more restrictive levels.

While only one of the Bay Area’s nine counties has declined one level (Contra Costa has gone from orange to red), cases are increasing across all counties. Napa and Santa Clara counties are seeing an increase in infections that could turn them from orange to red next week. Solano County is on track to return to the purple level.

San Francisco Mayor London Breed on Tuesday announced the elimination of indoor catering, a capacity limit in gyms and cinemas, and a pause on reopening other high schools until further notice.

“The tough choices we make now will help us improve our future,” Breed said. “We must do what is necessary to protect the people of San Francisco.”

Meals inside restaurants or bars serving meals must close on Saturday. Restaurants inside hotels, museums or other places will also have to close. Outdoor meals can continue.

Fitness centers and cinemas will have to maintain a 25% capacity with more than 50 people, reversing the previous limit of 100 people as of Saturday.

San Francisco’s director of health, Dr Grant Colfax, said he was alarmed by the recent rate of spread in the city. From October 21 to November 5, the number of new daily cases per 100,000 inhabitants rose from 3.7 to 9 per 100,000 inhabitants. The city is currently registering an average of 80 new cases per day, up from 32 at the end of October.

“This is consistent with what we are seeing in the Bay Area and in California,” Colfax said.

While California’s boom is alarming, Dr. Bob Wachter, director of the UCSF Department of Medicine, wrote in one of those regular Twitter feeds that there’s still time to turn around.

“While the CA numbers are heading in the wrong direction, relative to the Midwest, we’re doing well – at least not so bad that we can’t turn the tide,” he wrote. “The Midwest may well have reached that moment of exponential growth where the whole region must resort to a complete shutdown. But in California, we should be able to manage our surge with less extreme measures.”

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