[ad_1]
Losses keep piling up for the Minnesota Timberwolves, who fell to 3-10 on the season after losing to the Orlando Magic 97-96 on a buzzer-beater from Cole Anthony.
Minnesota is now 1-9 in its last 10 games and has the second-worst record in the NBA behind the Detroit Pistons. The Warriors have the Timberwolves’ three best protected first-round picks in 2021 in the Andrew Wiggins trade that has already proven to be pretty one-sided. If the pick comes in the top three, the Warriors get the 2022 Unprotected Wolves Pick.
While conventional wisdom might dictate the Warriors want the Timberwolves to lose but not too much, the flattened NBA lottery odds should have the Warriors hoping the T-Wolves continue to rack up losses.
Starting with the 2019 NBA Draft, the league reduced the odds so that teams with the three worst records share an equal chance (14%) of winning the first pick. Each of the top three has a 13.4% chance of getting No. 2 and a 12.7% chance of winning No. 3, meaning teams with the three worst records have 40.1% chance of landing in the top three, and 59.9 percent chance of landing outside the top three.
While being one of the three worst teams would give the Timberwolves a better chance to hold onto their pick, it would give the Warriors a better chance of snagging a top five pick than if Minnesota finished with the fifth, sixth or seventh worst record. . .
A team in the bottom three is guaranteed to be in the top seven. The team with the worst record can’t get out of the top five, the team with the second worst record can’t get past No.6 and so on.
Suppose Minnesota ends up with the second worst record in the NBA. This would give the Warriors a 59.1% chance of landing the pick No.4, 5 or 6. Whereas if Wolves finish with the sixth-worst record, there is a 62.77% chance that the pick will fall between the six. and the 10th, a 9.62% chance of landing 4th and a 27.6% chance that Wolves will retain the top three pick.
RELATED: Warriors Finding Out How Great They Can Be
As you can see, in this scenario the Warriors have a better chance of getting a higher pick if the Timberwolves are in the bottom three than if they end up somewhere in the five to eight range. The better the Wolves play, the higher the odds are that the Warriors will get a pick outside of the top five.
Of course, the more wolves lose, the better their chances of keeping their choice. Really, losing in Minnesota is in everyone’s best interest except for coach Ryan Saunders. And then it’s just a matter of how the ping pong balls bounce.
Download and subscribe to the Dubs Talk podcast
[ad_2]
Source link