Virginia has one of the highest vaccination rates in the United States.
But he has seen a substantial increase in hospitalizations in recent weeks.
An expert told Insider that the uneven distribution of those vaccinated gives the virus an opening.
Virginia is the 12th most vaccinated state in the country, with nearly 60% complete vaccines.
Vaccination is known to significantly reduce the risk of hospitalization from COVID-19.
Yet in the latest wave of COVID-19, hospitalization rates in Virginia reached about two-thirds of the state’s highest levels on record, reminiscent of a time when hardly anyone was vaccinated.
The pattern has not been replicated in other states, where despite a general increase in cases, vaccines have done a much more pronounced job of keeping people from going to the hospital.
New hospital admissions for patients with COVID-19.
CDC
Insider spoke to an expert to find out why.
He said the state’s high-level statistics masked the reality that much of Virginia’s population – primarily those in rural areas – had avoided vaccination and was now falling ill.
Rural counties have lower vaccination rates
COVID-19 hospitalizations in Virginia are up about 1,000% from July, the Virginia Hospital & Healthcare Association (VHHA) said in a statement last week.
But it’s not the vaccines that are causing the rise in serious illness, said Bryan Lewis, a professor at the University of Virginia who modeled the spread of COVID-19 for the state.
Instead, Lewis told Insider that the increase in hospitalizations can be explained by the very different vaccination rates in each county.
Adoption has been good in the more populous counties, such as those in the north, east and southeast. Fairfax County, for example, which straddles parts of Washington DC, has fully vaccinated 73% of its population.
But in more rural areas of the state, such as those in the southwest, vaccination rates have been lower. For example, Lee, the westernmost county, only vaccinated 38%.
A map of vaccination in Virginia.
Virginia
Cases have increased where vaccination is weak. According to data from the state’s health department, fully vaccinated people in Virginia are eight times less likely to contract COVID-19 than unvaccinated people.
The rate of COVID-19 in southwest Virginia in mid-September was twice the statewide, said Breanne Forbes Hubbard, public health manager for the Mount Rogers Health District, according to the local news station WJHL.
Hospitalizations followed, with rates in the southwestern counties much higher than in the north.
As of Tuesday, Washington County in the southwest reported a cumulative 934 COVID-19-related hospitalizations per 100,000 people, compared to Loudoun, in the north, which reported 284.
A car drives past a church with a Covid-19 message near Martinsville, Virginia, after the latest wave of the pandemic on March 12, 2021.
Andrew Caballero-Reynolds / AFP / Getty Images
People in rural areas may encounter virus for the first time
Like the rest of the United States, Lewis said, those who haven’t been vaccinated don’t trust the vaccine. “There is a little bit of a political element. There is a little element of personal freedom. There is a lot of disbelief in the safety and effectiveness of the vaccine,” he said.
The vaccine gap follows political lines, Lewis said, with the more conservative being more hesitant about vaccination.
The state may have elected Joe Biden in November 2020, but the state map is extremely red, according to Politico. That’s because more than half of the state’s population lives in 11 counties.
The other 4 million are spread across 122 counties, according to 2020 University of Virginia data.
The fact that residents of these counties are far from each other may have played a role in the reluctance: rural communities have mostly been spared in previous waves of COVID-19 in the state, so many would not have seen the effects of COVID-19 firsthand, Lewis says.
This has given a false sense of security in rural areas. They were left unprotected as waves of people entered these areas in the summer, bringing the coronavirus with them.
People wearing masks walk across the lawn at the University of Virginia in Charlottesville, Virginia.
Julia Rendleman for The Washington Post via Getty Images
Hospitals under increased pressure
For now, the health system is facing a surge in hospitalizations. More than 20% of the state’s intensive care beds are open, according to data from the Department of Health and Human Services.
But the arrival of Afghan refugees in the state is escalating the pressure, the Virginia Hospital & Healthcare Association (VHHA) said in a statement last week.
“Our hospitals are already nearing capacity,” Kristin Nickerson, executive director of the Northern Virginia Emergency Response System, told the Washington Post.
“It’s not like they have tons of free beds available. We’re still in the middle of a pandemic.”
