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Kraken Intelligence examines Bitcoin’s price potential in August as the flagship cryptocurrency emerges from a turbulent three-month period.
According to the crypto exchange’s new report, Bitcoin did quite well in July, rewarding holders with returns of + 18%, which is above the historical average return for the month of 11%.
August is not generally a very good month for Bitcoin, Kraken reports.
“August is the second worst-performing month on record with an average and median monthly return of 2% and -7%, respectively. In fact, since 2011, August has outperformed July only three times.”
Kraken also examines historical third-quarter BTC numbers, noting that Bitcoin’s performance in the third quarter has been ubiquitous in recent years. Kraken says historical precedence might not be a reliable indicator in this case.
The crypto exchange indicates that Bitcoin’s volatility has declined slightly lately and may drop before the rest of the month.
“With Bitcoin’s 30D mobile volatility (76.5%) rapidly approaching its 345D mobile volatility (73.1%) and the volatility remaining in what appears to be an uptrend, one would expect volatility to drift. slightly lower in August before finally rebounding in the following week (s) / month. In short, history suggests volatility is on the horizon.
The crypto exchange also includes whale activity in its report. Kraken says the “cohort” of whales that hold 1,000 or more BTCs started accumulating BTC again in July after losing 30,000 BTC in June.
The amount of BTC in whale wallets rose sharply after Bitcoin rebounded by $ 30,000 on July 20, Kraken reports.
“The current build-up tells us that this cohort sees an increase from the current price and that the immediately available market supply of BTC is declining.”
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