Will Thanksgiving be a COVID-19 disaster? In Canada, the answer is “yes”

© David Kawai – Bloomberg / Getty Images
Justin Trudeau, Prime Minister of Canada, takes off a protective mask during a press conference in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, Friday, November 6, 2020.

As coronavirus cases and hospitalizations increase in the United States, public health officials, local leaders and others are urging Americans to rethink their typical Thanksgiving plans this year. “I encourage everyone to follow the [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s] guidelines and plan for a smaller dinner, with your immediate family only, ”New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy said at a Nov. 5 media briefing; his condition, like many others, is facing a frightening new wave. “We don’t want anyone’s Thanksgiving to result in more COVID-19 cases.”

Prolonged gatherings inside many people from different households, after all, are a major risk factor for viral spread. Plus, it’s hard to keep a mask on when you’re busy pushing your grandma’s turkey and stuffing your face, and drinking alcohol can make people less careful about social distancing. Particularly alarming analysis suggests the odds of having at least one COVID-19 positive at a mid-size Thanksgiving rally this year could be close to 100% in some hard-hit areas of the country, and only slightly less elsewhere.

Will this year’s Thanksgiving gatherings lead to more viral spread in the United States? For a decent prediction, we only have to look at our friends to the north, as Canada celebrated its version of Thanksgiving almost exactly a month ago, on October 12. With Canada already on an upward trajectory for COVID-19 even before Thanksgiving, several Canadian experts have told me that, yes, the holidays have almost definitely made matters worse.

“It’s not that we were flat and all of a sudden Thanksgiving has taken place and there we see an increase,” says Dr. Laura Rosella, associate professor and epidemiologist at the Dalla Lana School of Public Health. University of Toronto. But, she adds, “The reason we’re pretty confident Thanksgiving has increased cases is that we saw our highest number in the two weeks after Thanksgiving, which is consistent with the period of time. ‘incubation, when people showed symptoms and were reported. “

Additionally, Rosella says Canada’s post-Thanksgiving increases come even as it is increasingly difficult for some Canadians to get tested; more cases with fewer tests suggest truly explosive growth. “Because our tests were getting tense, the requirements for getting tested became more stringent,” she says. “So we’re seeing more cases even though we’ve had to change the screening criteria so that only those who are in high-risk situations and have symptoms are tested.”

Rosella also added that contact tracing efforts have shown Thanksgiving gatherings directly lead to viral spread – useful and informative information that would not show up in the aggregate numbers above, but underscores the importance of a effective screening and screening program.

Dr. Matthew Oughton, assistant professor of medicine at McGill University and attending physician in the division of infectious diseases at the Montreal Jewish General Hospital, adds that the impact of Thanksgiving could have been even more evident in the data, if not for the decision of some Canadian provinces to implement new measures, such as closing dining rooms and indoor theaters, around the same time as the holidays.

“While we haven’t seen a huge increase in the number of cases in Ontario and Quebec, what is striking is that we haven’t seen the decrease you expected to see as a result of these foreclosure measures, ”Oughton said. “One of the theories is that at the same time the foreclosure measures should have brought things down, it was actually Thanksgiving that pushed those numbers up.”

As in Canada, US Thanksgiving coincides with two other dangerous trends: COVID-19 cases climb across the country, while “pandemic fatigue” – people’s feeling of being downright sick and tired of change. their behavior to help curb viral spread – seems to be increasing. Even people who are careful in their daily lives can see Thanksgiving as an exception, a chance to pretend everything is normal for a day. But the virus doesn’t care whether it’s a vacation or not, of course.

Many Americans, including this writer, are planning a safe Thanksgiving during a pandemic, forgoing the usual large family reunion in person in favor of a smaller meal and video chat. But others will likely ignore expert warnings and rally regardless of the danger. So what can people do to try to reduce the danger if they insist on meeting in person for Thanksgiving?

“All the virus needs is close contact for an extended period of time, and especially indoors, because ventilation is less good,” Oughton says. Better to distance yourself than not to distance yourself, he says, and having an outdoor party, where the weather permits, is also better, given the best natural ventilation. If you can’t hold Thanksgiving outdoors, Oughton says, consider keeping the windows open to improve ventilation or rethink the way you seat people. “Can you have people sit farther away, so instead of a single family table, can you have a few small tables?” he says. “Or do people take their food and sit down, but again with distance so that at least you can be together and have a meal together even though you are still sitting at least six feet away? from each other?

Still, Oughton echoes the advice of many other public health experts, saying it’s best to connect with extended family online this year to help keep everyone happy and healthy for life. holiday season next year, especially since some family members, like grandparents, are more vulnerable to severe COVID-19 due to age and other potential factors.

“It’s not the same as being able to see them and hug them in person, but then again,” he said, “I wouldn’t want to have a good Thanksgiving and then find out two weeks later than that. ‘one of them arrived at the hospital. “