Will the 2019 Oscars define a record audience?

The 2019 Oscars have already been a bit of a disaster: we had a host, we lost a host. AMPAS and ABC said they were transferring four previously televised deals to commercials – a call that was not so well done and was quickly canceled.

But as usual, Nielsen's television audiences will have the final say on the results of this year's Academy Awards.

Is the special program without host ABC the doomed Oscar? Or could Sunday's show pleasantly surprise Monday's return to Nielsen?

Recent history – and a pair of industry rating experts – points to one option or the other.

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Last year's Oscars attracted an average of 26.5 million viewers, the smallest audience ever attributed to the show. Jimmy Kimmel's second round as Academy Master of Ceremonies erased the record of the old record by 17%. Year-over-year, the 2018 Oscars audience decreased by 20%.

The few important programs (that is to say, broadcast on television) already broadcast in 2019 have largely stabilized. On Sunday, January 6, the NBC Golden Globe Awards recorded a 4% growth among the most mature adults aged 18 to 49, with a score of 5.2 compared to 5.0 in 2018. The audience overall decrease only 2% from the previous year, from 19 million to 18.6 million.

The CBS Grammy Awards on Sunday, February 10th, saw 77,000 spectators increase its audience. He slipped into the demo of one year on the other, but this decline was only 5%.

Read also: An Oscars without hosts? The last time the Academy tried, things went wrong

Of course, the Emmys dropped to a record 10.2 million viewers in September (down from 11.4 million in 2017), but the decline was only 10% from the previous year. last year. Believe it or not, NBC was pleased with this result. The decline of the demo (rating of 2.4 against 2.5) is only 4%, so this is something they can proudly emphasize.

Thus, the industry-wide stabilization of the industry plays in its favor. Not having any host is probably not going to help (a lot), but it adds curiosity and the tuning potential of the crash factor.

The movies are more friendly this year, which could contribute a bit. Some critics think that the only reason why Marvel's "Black Panther" was even nominated for the best film is to draw eyes, especially younger ones. For the first time, Lady Gaga, who starred in "A star is born" and is generally considered deserving of the head, could also make a minor difference in attracting her monsters.

Three of the Best Film nominees – "Black Panther", "A Star is Born" and "Bohemian Rhapsody" – grossed more than $ 200 million at the box office, for the second time only. This should help: The only other time that three films of $ 200 million were nominated, it is 2010, which obtained the highest score and the second audience of all the Oscar programs since 2005.

(But the only recent year with a wider audience, 2014, was only a $ 200 million film – in this case, viewers seem to have been drawn to the host, Ellen DeGeneres .)

Read also: Someone will he tackle this year's Oscars fiasco?

The reason why ABC originally wanted to change some of the trophy presentations during commercial breaks is to speed up the long show and make sure it stays stuck at three o'clock, which means it will not go beyond 23 hours from Primetime. AND break. The final figures will still be adjusted for the final time slot and time zone, but any overrun delaying the final advertisement of the series – this is Nielsen's deadline – will not help guests to fold.

If all this sounds like a forecast, it's almost everyone does it. An expert on the animation of a competing channel told us that Sunday's Oscars had a "legitimate plan" to reach their break-even point with 2018, or even to generate gains. It's rather optimistic, but not quite confident. A separate person, familiar with conversations at ABC, told us that leaders were anticipating a decline, even if it was not huge.

In any case, ABC can be assured that the 91st edition of the Oscars will be the most watched retransmission of 2019 off football. In addition, according to Kantar Media, the presentation of last year 's Oscars reported $ 133 million in advertising revenue, up 17% from the previous year. year, so this trend could help mitigate any kind of blow.

The 2019 Oscars will air Sunday, February 24 at ABC / 7 / 7c – will you watch? Let us know in the comments section, and we will tell you how many (others) came on Monday.