WSJ: COVID-19 death toll worse than it looks

Statistics show that the confirmed number of deaths worldwide from COVID-19 approached 2 million on Thursday. But experts say the actual death toll caused by the pandemic could be closer to 3 million.

According to an analysis conducted by the Wall Street Journal, COVID-19 has indirectly and directly contributed to a global outbreak of deaths that rose 12% above average last year.

Experts say less than two-thirds of the additional deaths recorded were attributable to COVID-19, but the majority were linked to the disease, especially in the early months, when testing and treatment was scarce. Additionally, the researchers found that many people died from illnesses not directly related to the coronavirus, but from other causes such as Alzheimer’s disease and fatal heart attacks, as individuals avoided medical examinations and visits to health professionals. emergencies for fear of being infected.

Journal researchers collected data on the number of deaths from all causes in the countries that compiled these records. They found 821,000 more deaths in those countries that were not reported in their COVID-19 death figures. The countries identified by the Journal would normally have 15 million deaths last year based on previous statistics. Instead, they reported nearly 17 million deaths.

Tracking these numbers is essential to understanding the far-reaching effects of the pandemic. While an increase in heart disease may be linked to COVID-19, an increase in cancer could indicate people are afraid to go to hospital, noted Colin Mathers, a former analyst with the World Health Organization. health.

Medical tests dropped in the first months of the coronavirus outbreak. Komodo Health, which has a large database of medical claims, said cervical cancer screenings were down 68%, cholesterol panels fell 67%, and blood sugar tests to detect and managing diabetes had fallen 65% in the United States.

Millions of Americans have postponed critical testing as residents obeyed orders to stay home, according to Fox News.

“We are seeing a huge impact on preventive care,” said Dr. Arif Nathoo, CEO of Komodo Health. “It says a lot about the impact of COVID on the health and well-being of everyone.”

Dr David Tom Cooke, head of general thoracic surgery at the University of California, Davis, Health, told Reuters that although his cancer patients are being treated, he fears new cancers will be detected until that they are more advanced and less treatable.

“We don’t do cancer screening, like breast cancer mammography and lung cancer screening,” he said. “There is concern that we are delaying the standard management of treatment for patients with potentially curable cancers.”

According to the Journal, the results of the countries analyzed by the journal showed a “staggering human loss, even before taking into account all the deaths due to the outbreak of COVID-19 cases at the end of the year.” Although some countries, like Norway and New Zealand, had negative excess deaths last year, these are exceptions. Researchers say these countries have been successful in containing the virus effectively through behavioral changes that may have had a positive effect on their death rates.

In the United States, the Journal reports that there were 475,000 additional deaths from last year to early December, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. This included 281,000 victims attributed to COVID-19 during the same period, marking a 10% increase in mortality. Typically, death rates in America are increasing 1.6% per year.

The death toll continues to climb as countries analyzed by the Journal report an additional 444,000 COVID-19-related deaths through early 2021.

“The final word won’t be known for a few years, when the full analysis of all causes of death is complete,” said Mathers, who retired from the Mortality and Health Analysis Unit. of the WHO in 2018.