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The peak in coronavirus cases driven by the delta variant has caused the return of a familiar restriction in the Bay Area: an indoor mask warrant for everyone.
But could this latest wave bring back a much more disruptive measure to the Bay Area or even statewide – namely, foreclosure orders?
The answer so far, according to California and many county officials, is no.
That’s because this surge has stood out from the rest over the past year and a half: it’s the first to strike after the widespread deployment of COVID-19 vaccines, and the coronavirus and the public health tools to combat it have. significantly changed.
The California Department of Public Health said in an email Thursday that between masking, testing and more than 75% of eligible people in the state having received at least one dose of the vaccine, lockdowns would not be necessary. .
“California can continue to keep businesses open and get children back to classrooms safely,” the department said.
San Francisco and Alameda County Health Departments also said this week they were not considering ordering shelter in place. This is also the case for San Mateo County, according to Preston Merchant, public information officer at the Department of Public Health.
Laine Hendricks, public information officer for the Marin County Public Health Department, said the same, adding that the county is only seeing about a third of the number of cases it saw last January. , the majority now being among the unvaccinated.
The state and local response seems to reflect the message from the federal level. In ABC’s “This Week,” White House medical adviser Dr Anthony Fauci said lockdowns are not a likely future scenario for the United States, despite the flare-ups. Francis Collins, director of the National Institutes of Health, said in a recent interview that the country wanted “to avoid lockdowns at all costs”.
Experts point to several reasons why a lockdown at this point in the pandemic not only seems unlikely, but extremely.
“A lockdown is a public health measure of last resort,” said Dr. Warner Greene, infectious disease expert, infectious disease expert at Gladstone Institutes in San Francisco. “We have all the tools that can prevent any lockdown requirement. “
Vaccines
The most powerful tool, officials say, is the presence of COVID-19 vaccines. The Bay Area is one of the most vaccinated places in the country, with San Francisco being the first major city in the United States to reach the milestone of 80% of eligible residents receiving at least one dose of the vaccine.
The recent return of universal indoor mask mandates across much of the Bay Area and a few other counties in California – along with state and federal recommendations for indoor masking by all – has been prompted by findings that in the delta phase of the pandemic, post-vaccination breakthrough infections remain rare but are not uncommon.
However, data shows that vaccines are very effective in preventing serious diseases, including those of the highly transmissible delta variant. In the Bay Area and across the country, hospitalizations and deaths related to COVID-19 now occur overwhelmingly among unvaccinated people.
But officials say far too many people go unvaccinated to stem the delta’s surge. Places like San Francisco are working on many fronts to increase their rates, including sending mobile units to homes and workplaces, and offering special offers for attendees of the Stern Grove Music Festival.
“Now with the vaccine we can protect everyone,” Greene said. He added that he believes the rampant spread of the delta in states like Louisiana, Arkansas, Missouri and Florida has prompted many proponents of the vaccine to change their minds.
“It’s sad that this is what it takes, but I think death and destruction … helps some people move forward to get vaccinated,” he said.
Hospitalizations
The second reason blockages are not on the table is about hospitalization rates – which go hand in hand with vaccination rates. So far, of the more than 3,000 patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in San Francisco, only 16 have been vaccinated. Experts say this matches what they have been saying for months: The vast majority of hospitalizations and deaths are now among the unvaccinated.
And given the Bay Area’s relatively high vaccination rates, its hospital system is not yet overburdened – yet.
“The only time we would consider more restrictive policies would be to help keep our hospital capacity intact,” said Hendricks, of the Marin County Health Department. “What is reassuring at the moment is that although we are experiencing a spike in cases, it is not as important as what we experienced in December or January.”
Experts say a wild card would be the emergence of a variant that can elude current vaccines – but so far no variant has been completely vaccine resistant.
Knowledge and experience
Infectious disease experts have also pointed out that at this point in the pandemic we know a lot more about how to protect the people and places around us – through measures such as masking, social distancing. , ventilation and other nuanced approaches.
“I think we’ve recognized that a lockdown is a really blunt and blunt tool, and even in the face of a big increase, we can keep people safe by doing other things that are less damaging to people’s mental health. , for the economy (and) in the case of schools – children. said Dr Bob Wachter, director of the UCSF Department of Medicine.
“As a city and region, we are in a very different position now than when they had to put up a shelter last year,” a spokesperson for the San Francisco Department of Public Health said. “Then we knew little about how the COVID-19 virus spread and we were still deciphering what the best preventative measures were to put in place. Now we have a wealth of knowledge and we have vaccines. “
The Bay Area’s new indoor mask mandate is an important part of what UCSF infectious disease expert Monica Gandhi has said is aligning with Israel’s “soft suppression” plan that could happen. in the USA
This approach consists of three elements: maintaining indoor masking requirements, a vaccine passport program, and vaccine boosters for the elderly and immunocompromised.
San Francisco already allows booster shots for those who have received the Johnson & Johnson single-dose vaccine, and the city is also considering requiring proof of vaccination to enter restaurants and gyms, as New York has done. .
Annie Vainshtein is a writer for the San Francisco Chronicle. Email: [email protected]. Twitter: @annievain
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