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By the mid-1930s, scientists believe that coastal areas of the United States will begin to experience an increase in high tide flooding (HTF), in part due to an “oscillation” of the lunar orbit.
In a NASA-led study published in June in the journal Nature Climate Change, researchers said the planet’s lunar cycle would exacerbate the sea level rise (SLR) spurred by climate change in the years to come. .
The authors of the study used scenarios and “flood thresholds” to show how the effects of SLR and “modulations of the nodal cycle of tidal amplitude” lead to severe inflections in the projections of the future HTF. .
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Additionally, the research – which the agency says takes into account all known oceanic and astronomical causes of flooding – said annual cycles and sea level anomalies could lead to seasons or periods of several months in which the days of HTF will cluster together, resulting in “critical frequencies” of HTF occurring for monthly or seasonal periods one to two decades before being expected on an annual basis.
“When the moon and the Earth align in a specific way with each other and the sun, the resulting gravitational pull and the corresponding response of the ocean can leave city dwellers facing flooding every day. days or two, “NASA said in a statement.
While HTF or “nuisance” flooding is already a problem for the country’s coastal cities – particularly along the Atlantic Ocean – the impact of rising sea levels has been relatively minor during this decade.
Nonetheless, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported a total of more than 600 harmful flooding in 2019 and noted that the national trend of such flooding is accelerating and is “more than twice as likely now as it is. was in 2000 “due to relative reflex.
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The agency said that by 2050, high tide flooding is expected to occur between 25 and 75 days a year, depending on the location.
“It’s the effect that has built up over time that will have an impact,” said Phil Thompson, assistant professor at the University of Hawaii and lead author of the new study. “But if he floods 10 or 15 times a month, a business can’t keep operating with its parking lot underwater. People lose their jobs because they can’t get to work. The oozing sumps become a public health problem. “
The lunar “oscillation” takes 18.6 years and has been observed for generations, but how this oscillation impact, the moon’s gravitational pull combines with sea level rise, is “what new ”.
While Earth’s regular tides are suppressed in half of the 18.6-year lunar cycle, SLR pushes the tides higher during the other half.
NASA said the next time the moon is in the tidal amplifying portion of its cycle, higher seas will cause flooding numbers to “jump” for nearly all of the continental United States, Hawaii. and Guam.
Scientists projected the results to 2080, revealing tipping points by studying 89 tide gauge locations in all U.S. coastal states and territories except Alaska and using flood thresholds. , astronomical cycles and statistical representations of other processes affecting the tides, such as the El Niño climate model of the Pacific Ocean. .
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Global sea level has risen at an accelerating rate over the past few decades and continues to rise at a rate of about an eighth of an inch per year.
“Low areas near sea level are increasingly threatened and suffering due to increased flooding, and this will only get worse,” warned NASA Administrator Bill Nelson. “The combination of the Moon’s gravitational pull, rising sea levels and climate change will continue to exacerbate coastal flooding on our coasts and around the world. NASA’s Sea Level Change team provides crucial information so that we can plan, protect and prevent damage to the environment and to the livelihoods of people affected by flooding. “
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