Coronavirus death toll rises, but CDC forecasts are optimistic

CONNECTICUT – The state’s weekly coronavirus death toll has fallen from the breakneck pace it has set since the first week of August, and federal health officials expect more of the same until the beginning of October.

This week, the State Department of Public Health reported just 22 new deaths. Last week, DPH reported 39 new deaths, up from 25 the week before.

Nationally, more than 654,000 people have died from the coronavirus in the United States since the start of the pandemic, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In Connecticut, there have been 8,416 deaths associated with COVID-19.

The CDC predicts that the number of new deaths from COVID-19 will likely increase over the next four weeks, with 6,900 to 18,000 new deaths likely reported in the week ending October 2.

The national “package” predicts that a total of 683,000-710,000 deaths from COVID-19 will be reported by that date. An ensemble forecast combines each of the independently developed forecasts into a single aggregate forecast to improve the forecast over the next 4 weeks (learn more about this methodology here.).

The CDC’s most recent ensemble model for new weekly COVID-19 deaths specifically for Connecticut shows the peak occurs the week of September 12 and declines through the end of the month. Cross fingers.

In the graph below, the black line represents the historical toll of new deaths each week since early July in Connecticut. The dark red line follows new deaths predicted from COVID-19, as of this week (where data released by DPH indicates it’s on the money, if not even a little pessimistic).

The state has recorded an average of 20.5 coronavirus-related deaths per week since early August. Although the vaccination rate has slowed, the daily rate of viral positivity reliably dropped below 3 percent after peaking abnormally above 4.6 percent on the last day of August.

Overnight, DPH reported a coronavirus positivity rate of 2.93% in the state, based on 626 newly confirmed cases and 21,386 tests.

The number of Connecticut residents hospitalized with the coronavirus has steadily, albeit slowly, declined since the last week of August. According to DPH, ten additional beds were released overnight, bringing the number of COVID-19 patients requiring care at a health facility in the state to 354. Of these, 262, or 74%, are not fully vaccinated, according to a DPH report. .

Governor Ned Lamont on Thursday cited unvaccinated residents, inconsistent use of masks and indoor activity as the root causes of three new outbreaks of COVID-19 in the state.

The majority of coronavirus patients remain hospitalized in Hartford County, with 108, followed by 99 in New Haven County.

On Thursday, the CDC listed five Connecticut counties as “High Transmission” of COVID-19, including the counties of Hartford, Litchfield, New Haven, New London and Windham. The high transmission category – which is the most serious as defined by the CDC – is 100 or more cases per 100,000 people or a positivity rate of 10% or more in the past seven days.

The counties of Fairfield, Middlesex and Tolland are classified by the CDC as “Substantial Transmission”, defined as 50 to 100 cases per 100,000, or a positivity rate of between 8 and 10% in the last seven days.

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