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A report released Thursday says the vicious cycle linking natural resource depletion and violence may have passed the point of no return in parts of the planet and will likely be exacerbated by climate change.
The second edition of Ecological Threats Report (ETR), published by the Institute of Economics and Peace (IEP), assesses threats “linked to food risk, water risk, rapid population growth, temperature anomalies and natural disasters”. The authors measured these threats against a country’s “socio-economic resilience” to determine the likelihood of a country being able to cope with environment-related conflicts.
The ETR has found that there is a cyclical relationship between ecological degradation and conflict. Lack of available resources, primarily access to food and clean water, leads to violent conflict within a nation, further preventing that society from accessing or maintaining these resources. The IEP believes that these cycles will continue to evolve negatively without a sustained effort to reverse the current trajectory.
The report found that current trends are reversing the long-standing trend of decreasing food scarcity around the world. The food shortage has steadily increased since 2015. The IEP projects, based on current trends and policies, that the “number of undernourished people [will] increase by 343 million by 2050, to reach 1.1 billion people ”, an increase of 45% over current figures.
Traditional agriculture and bread belts in Africa and the Middle East will be particularly affected if current trends continue. These areas, particularly the Horn of the Sahel, currently have the highest levels of food insecurity and the lowest societal resilience to ecological change.
The 30 countries that currently face the highest level of ecological threat are home to 1.26 billion people. ERT says that of the 15 countries currently facing the worst ecological threats, 11 are currently in conflict and the other four are struggling to maintain a lasting peace. All of these nations “combine low socio-economic resilience with medium to high catastrophic ecological threats.” Almost two-thirds of current climate migrants come from these 30 countries.
ETR urges the international community to prioritize the establishment of international agencies that combine health, food, water, refugee aid, finance, agriculture and development. The report also points out that “[m]all solutions to ecological problems can generate revenue, ”echoing similar statements from supporters of renewable energy and other climate change mitigation efforts.
World leaders and other international bodies prepare to gather in Glasgow for the United Nations Conference of the Parties on Climate Change (COP26). One of the statements goals of the meeting is “[a]dapt to protect communities and natural habitats ”by encouraging countries to“ protect and restore ecosystems… [by building] resilient infrastructure and agriculture to prevent loss of homes, livelihoods and even lives.
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