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College Park (United States) (AFP) – After devastating the Riviera in 2013, destroyed Dhaka in 2015 and saved Tokyo in 2017, an international simulation of the impact of an asteroid's Is over Friday with his latest disaster, New York in ruins.
Despite eight simulated years of preparation, scientists and engineers have attempted, but unsuccessfully, to deflect the killer asteroid.
The exercise has become a regular event among the international community of "global defense" experts.
The latest edition started Monday near Washington with the following warning: an asteroid about 100 to 300 meters in diameter had been spotted and, according to rough calculations, had a one in two chance of hitting the Earth on April 29, 2027.
Each day of the conference, some 200 astronomers, engineers and emergency response specialists received new information, made decisions and awaited further updates from the game's organizers, designed by a NASA aerospace engineer.
Over the fictitious months of simulation, the probability that the giant space rock crashes on Earth is 10%, then 100%.
NASA launched a survey in 2021 to examine the threat closely. In December of the same year, astronomers confirmed that they were heading directly to the Denver area and that the western United States would be destroyed.
The major space powers of the United States, Europe, Russia, China and Japan have decided to build six "kinetic impactors", probes designed to hit the asteroid to change its trajectory .
It took time to build the impactors and wait for the right launch window. The impacts were set for August 2024.
Three impactors managed to hit the asteroid. The main body was deflected, but a smaller fragment broke and continued on a deadly trajectory, this time to the eastern United States.
Washington was considering sending a nuclear bomb to deflect the 60 meter rock – repeating a successful strategy that had saved Tokyo last year – but it was paralyzed by political clashes.
All that remained was to prepare for the impact.
Six months from the end, the experts could only predict that the asteroid was heading to the New York area. With two months to come, it is confirmed that the city will be destroyed.
– evacuation! –
The asteroid will enter the atmosphere at 69,000 kilometers at the hour and will explode 15 kilometers above Central Park.
The energy of the explosion will be a thousand times greater than that of the nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima.
It will destroy everything in a radius of 15 km "unfathomable", said scientists.
Manhattan will be completely shaved. The windows up to 45 kilometers will break and the damage will extend up to 68 kilometers from the epicenter.
The issues raised by the scenario were endless.
How are the authorities evacuating ten million people? Moving people to the hurricane shelter has shown the difficulty of the task.
"Two months may not be enough to evacuate, because you evacuate people who are stuck, who have to rebuild their lives where they are going.You'll have a fleet of U-Haul," said Brandy Johnson, a angry citizen "in the exercise, referring to the leasing moving trucks.
Who will pay? Who will host the displaced? How will the authorities protect everything from nuclear and chemical installations to works of art?
And how will citizens behave in the face of an end-of-the-world scenario?
"If you knew your home was going to be destroyed in six months and you did not come back, could you continue to pay your mortgage?" asked Victoria Andrews, NCO of NASA's global defense.
Participants discussed at length insurance and legal issues: the United States saved Denver but accidentally destroyed New York.
"In this situation, under international law, the United States, whatever their fault, as the launching State, would be absolutely obliged to pay compensation," said Alissa Haddaji, coordinator of a group of 15 lawyers specializing in the international space created to study these same issues. .
The fictional killer asteroid is, of course, "highly unlikely", told AFP Paul Chodas, the NASA engineer, game designer.
"But we wanted the problems to be exposed and discussed."
Astronomers at the conference took the opportunity to defend the NeoCam space telescope project, which would help scientists better identify asteroids and react more quickly to threats.
The next simulation exercise will take place in 2021 in Vienna. Chodas has left open the possibility that it is Europe's turn in the crosshairs.
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