Another bay area county on the verge of falling back to purple level

In the purple level, Marin County would be required to impose a nighttime curfew and shut down many indoor businesses, including cinemas, gymnasiums and places of worship. The county has already closed the indoor dining room.

The county has gone from an average recording of around 10 cases per day in October to 20 per day in recent weeks.

About 1,300 Marin residents are tested each day, “twice the state average,” Willis said.

Marin has also seen a demographic and racial shift in COVID-19 infections with this fall surge.

Willis shared a chart on Nov. 17 showing how the virus grew from disproportionately infecting the Hispanic / Latin American population during the first months of the pandemic and into September. In November, cases among the white population increased dramatically with 57% of cases in the white population versus 33% among Latinos in the week of November 3, and 45% of infections among whites and 42% among Latinos in the week of November 3. November. . ten.

“ In the first few months of the pandemic, it was a story of disproportionate impact in some communities, some communities characterized by race, ethnicity, economic opportunity, characterized by where they live, the district of San Rafael canal, parts of Novato, with up to 80-90% of our cases, were people who had no choice to safely isolate themselves due to being essential workers, relying on daily work to make ends meet and then living in households where transmission was more common. “Willis says.” Over the past month the majority of cases are among our white residents. We find a greater proportion of these cases among people who congregate indoors and might have a more reasonable option to avoid these. exhibitions because they are based on personal choices. “

Cases across California have exploded in recent weeks and 45 of 58 counties are now in the most restrictive purple level marked by widespread transmission. The Bay Area has experienced a less severe pandemic than other parts of the state and with Marin, San Francisco and San Mateo are still in the red. But SF health officials suspect the city may also regress to purple in the coming days.

“We are rapidly approaching the number of cases to be reassigned to the purple level,” SF director of public health Dr. Grant Colfax said Tuesday. “Level reassignments can take place any day of the week, and can occur more than once a week when the California Department of Public Health determines that immediate action is required. We plan to move to this more restrictive purple level soon, possibly later this week. “

The state system classifies counties into four levels – “purple” (widespread), “red” (substantial), “orange” (moderate) or “yellow” (minimal) – which measure the spread of COVID-19 and dictate the types of businesses and activities are allowed to open. The structure allows counties to be more restrictive and move more slowly than the state when it reopens, if they choose.

County level assignment is based on two key parameters: case rate (number of new cases per 100,000 population) and positivity rate (percentage of people who tested positive for the virus of all people tested.) A measure of health equity is also part of the equation, but only comes into play to help a county move to a less restrictive level.

Counties in the purple category report more than seven new daily cases per 100,000 population and have positivity rates above 8%. For a county to go red, it must report fewer than seven daily cases per 100,000 population and a test positivity rate of less than 8% for 14 consecutive days. Orange level requires less than 3.9 cases per 100,000 and a test positivity below 4.9%, and yellow requires less than one case per 100,000 and less than 2% positivity.

Last week, the state called on purple-level counties to implement a curfew.

“Limited stay home order” calls for non-essential work and gatherings to stop from 10 p.m. to 5 a.m.

The intention of the curfew is to curb the rise in cases and avoid a situation where more extreme lockdown is needed.

In the purple level, the state allows barbershops and hair salons to remain open indoors. Retail trade, including shopping centers, can be opened at 25% capacity.

In the past, a county has retreated by failing to meet the criteria for two consecutive weeks, but last week the state announced that counties would now return to a more restrictive reopening level after a week of data that did not meet standards a lower level.

The state is now asking returning counties to shut down required business lines within 24 hours, instead of three days.