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New research shows that the great ocean current system that includes the Gulf Stream is losing its stability – potentially approaching a tipping point that will have ripple effects across our planet. The cause of this trend is complex, but all the major factors are clearly linked to one thing: man-made climate change.
If you think this sounds exactly like the disaster movie premise Two days later, you are not wrong. However, before we start planning the apocalypse, it’s still unclear how close that tipping point is, and what impacts we might see if this collapse happens.
In the review Natural climate change, Niklas Boers of the Potsdam Climate Impact Research Institute, Freie Universität Berlin and University of Exeter examined the health of the Southern Atlantic overturning circulation (AMOC) – finding new evidence that it is undergoing a disturbing slowdown caused by a loss of stability.
AMOC is like the jugular vein of the Earth. The gargantuan ocean current in the Atlantic carries warm water from the tropics north to the ocean surface and cold water south to the ocean floor. One of the arms of this current is the Gulf Stream, which plays an important role in the climate of several regions.
AMOC’s stability has declined dramatically over the past few decades, Boers analysis suggests. Previous work has revealed that the AMOC is currently at its lowest for over a millennium, but new observations and models show that this weakness is actually the result of declining stability. This means that the vital ocean current system could approach a critical threshold – beyond which the circulation system could collapse.
“The results support the assessment that the decline in AMOC is not just a fluctuation or linear response to increasing temperatures, but likely signifies approaching a critical threshold beyond which the system traffic could collapse, ”Boers explained in a declaration.
A number of factors have likely played a role in this regard – all linked to man-made climate change – including the inflow of fresh water from the melting of the Greenland ice sheet; melting sea ice; and river runoff from excess rainwater, stormwater and meltwater.
The impact of a possible collapse is currently difficult to determine, but it is clear that AMOC directly influences the climate in much of the east coast of North America and Western Europe. The UK is the same distance from the equator as the cold regions of Canada, but the UK has a much warmer climate thanks to AMOC bringing warm water north from the Gulf of Mexico . With a lower AMOC, the UK and other parts of Western Europe are likely to experience colder weather.
However, not all scientists agree with the findings of this latest report. Talk to the New York Times, Susan Lozier, physical oceanographer and dean of Georgia Tech’s College of Sciences, said the research was “interesting,” but felt it was still not clear whether circulation in the AMOC would certainly slow down due to this instability.
Either way, she added that the climate crisis is undoubtedly having an extremely impact. regarding the effect on Earth’s oceans, namely sea level rise, and that’s something we all need to be wary of.
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