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The SARS-CoV-2 variant first detected in the UK is quickly becoming the dominant strain in several countries and doubling every 10 days in the US, new data shows.
The findings of Nicole L. Washington, PhD, associate director of research at genomics company Helix, and her colleagues were posted on the pre-print server on Sunday. medRxiv. The article has not been peer reviewed in a scientific journal.
The researchers also found that the rate of transmission in the United States of the variant, labeled B.1.1.7, is 30% to 40% higher than that of more common lines.
While the clinical results were initially considered to be similar to those of other variants of SARS-CoV-2, early reports suggest that infection with the B.1.1.7 variant may increase the risk of death by about 30%.
A co-author of the current study, Kristian Andersen, said The New York Times , “Nothing in this article is surprising, but people need to see it.”
Andersen, a virologist at the Scripps Research Institute in La Jolla, Calif., Added that “we should probably prepare for this to be the predominant lineage in most places in the United States by March.”
The B.1.1.7 variant study adds support to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) prediction last month that it would dominate by March.
“Our study shows that the United States is on a similar trajectory to other countries where B.1.1.7 has rapidly become the dominant variant of SARS-CoV-2, requiring immediate and decisive action to minimize morbidity and COVID-19 mortality, “the researchers write. .
The authors point out that the B.1.1.7 variant became the dominant strain of SARS-CoV-2 in the UK a few months after its detection.
“Since then, the variant has been seen increasingly in many European countries, including Portugal and Ireland, which, like the UK, observed devastating waves of COVID-19 after B.1.1. 7 has become dominant, ”the authors write.
“Category 5” storm
The B.1.1.7 variant has probably spread among U.S. states since at least December, they write.
Medscape Medical News reported on Jan.15 that as of Jan. 13, variant B.1.1.7 had been observed in 76 cases in 12 U.S. states, according to an early release from the CDC. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR).
As of Sunday, there were 690 cases of the B.1.1.7 variant in the United States in 33 states, according to the CDC.
Washington and colleagues have examined more than 500,000 coronavirus test samples from cases across the United States that have been tested at Helix facilities in San Mateo, Calif., Since July.
In the study, they found an inconsistent prevalence of the variant across states. As of the last week of January, researchers estimated the proportion of B.1.1.7 in the U.S. population to be around 2.1% of all COVID-19 cases, although they found it accounted for about 2% of all COVID-19 cases in California and about 4.5% of cases in Florida. The authors recognize that their data is less robust outside of these two states.
Although this appears to be a relatively low frequency, “our estimates show that its growth rate is at least 35% -45% increased and doubled every week and a half,” the authors write.
“Because laboratories in the United States are only sequencing a small subset of SARS-CoV-2 samples, the true diversity of SARS-CoV-2 sequences in this country is still unknown,” they note. .
Michael Osterholm, PhD, MPH, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, said last week that the United States is facing a “category 5” storm with the spread of variant B .1.1.7. like the variants first identified in South Africa and Brazil.
“We’re going to see something like we haven’t seen in this country yet,” Osterholm said recently on NBC. Meet the press.
Principal author Nicole L. Washington and many co-authors are employees of Helix. Other co-authors are Illumina employees. Three co-authors own shares in ILMN.
The work was funded by Illumina, Helix, the Innovative Genomics Institute (CYC), and the New Frontiers in Research Fund provided by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CYC).
Marcia Frellick is a Chicago-based freelance journalist. She has previously written for the Chicago Tribune, Science News, and Nurse.com, and was an editor for the Chicago Sun-Times, Cincinnati Enquirer, and St. Cloud (Minnesota) Times. Follow her on Twitter at @mfrellick
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