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A day after California’s largest city saw what officials have called the “worst day” of the pandemic so far with its highest number of Covid-19 cases on record, the state itself even broke the previous daily record for cases he set last week.
The state’s Covid-19 dashboard on Wednesday indicated that 20,759 new cases had been reported in the past 24 hours. This is nearly 2,500 more cases than the previous record high of 18,350. Worse, as test numbers have generally trended upward, the state’s test positivity rate has also skyrocketed. (More tests usually mean a falling positivity rate.)
The 14-day test positivity rate was 5.6% a week ago. On Tuesday that number skyrocketed to 6.5%. Over the past 24 hours, it has risen almost half a percent to 6.9%. In a state as large as California, that half a percent alone could mean up to 200,000 more infections.
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Los Angeles sees worst day of Covid-19 pandemic with new record cases
On Monday, Gov. Gavin Newsom all but promised that a stricter stay-at-home order was on its way.
“If these trends continue, we will have to take much more dramatic, arguably drastic, measures,” he said. “If these trends continue, the potential for a home order for these areas of purple [tier] is more in line with the stay-at-home order that people knew earlier this year. “
As for the threshold that could trigger further action, “We are looking at the capacity of critical care as a trigger for further action,” said California director of health and human services Dr. Mark Ghaly.
On Tuesday, the California Covid-19 dashboard reported that, while the state had actually seen a decrease in the number of infected patients in intensive care, the line plotting the number of hospitalizations was almost straight, with the state making state of a record 9,365 people hospitalized with the virus. See the hospitalization table below.
The number of patients infected with the virus who end up in the ICU has remained reliably at 12%. This means that within two weeks, the state could see 530 more patients in intensive care. That would put the total number of Covid-19 hospitalizations at around 1/3 of the state total. And given that there are a host of other illnesses that will likely send residents to intensive care as well, it could mean acute care facilities are overwhelmed. Newsom predicted exactly that on Monday.
The governor reviewed a table of state projections – see below – which indicated that the number of Covid patients in California hospitals could double or triple next month. Even more frightening, he said state models show that California’s intensive care units will be overwhelmed by mid-December. In Los Angeles, the tipping point is expected to occur from mid-December to the end of December.
“It’s in the absence of… improved efforts,” Newsom said. He noted that Californians could still “bend the curve” with their actions. It doesn’t seem to be happening. In fact, the most likely scenario is that the state experiences “a surge in addition to a wave”.
Los Angeles County Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer and Dr Anthony Fauci both warned on Monday of “one outbreak in addition to an outbreak,” meaning the already record number of cases in the county would be joined by a wave of infections sparked by Thanksgiving activities. “We anticipate,” Newsom said Monday, “given the Thanksgiving gatherings we will see a further increase in cases.”
If the state is indeed seeing the start of this outbreak and the day-to-day increase is already so large, the situation is truly grim.
EARLIER: Dr Anthony Fauci tells @chucktodd that “it is not too late” to stop the spread of Covid.
Dr. Fauci: “We might see a surge superimposed on this surge we’re already in.” pic.twitter.com/apLV5qbABa
– Meet the press (@MeetThePress) November 29, 2020
According to an article updated Wednesday by Weekly Capitol. the governor is currently making decisions on what a new judgment would look like.
By Capitol Weekly:
Sources familiar with the talks said on Tuesday evening that the plan – which is reminiscent of an earlier crackdown in the spring – evolved amid reports of a dramatic increase in infections and a spike in overcrowding in intensive care units in the hospitals.
The administration believes a “blanket order” could be imminent and would likely affect areas of the state representing most of California’s population, sources said. Sources said the announcement was due on Wednesday, but this morning administration sources said no announcement was likely today.
On Monday, Newsom said the new order would be released in the “next few days.”
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