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Health officials across the country and at the regional level have urged people to use caution when planning gatherings.
“We want people to be able to celebrate future Thanksgivings, future Christmases, and future holidays together, and we just encourage people to stay small and private,” said Brenton Nesemeier, field epidemiologist at the Dakota Department of Health. North.
As of November 18, North Dakota had 9,977 active cases of COVID-19, a small drop from the past few days.
But if people gather in groups of more than 10, the state could experience “exponential growth,” Nesemeier said.
Dr Joshua Wynne, the dean of the UND medical school who is also the state’s chief health strategist, told the Herald last week that he was “ very concerned ” about the increase in COVID-19 cases in the state as the Thanksgiving holiday approaches – especially as small gatherings approach have contributed to the rapid increase in the number of cases in the Red River Valley and in the Midwest.
“It’s not like these are big events here,” he said. “I think these are smaller events. And I’m very concerned about what can happen during the Thanksgiving holiday when families get together and friends get together and so on.
The risk of gathering with more than 10 people is especially high in North Dakota, according to the COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment Planning Tool, a data tool from the Georgia Institute of Technology.
The site uses public data to assess the risk of interacting with a person infected with the virus in a group of 10 or more people. Data is not an indicator of the risk of transmitting the virus, however, as many other factors – such as wearing a mask, social distancing, and whether an event is taking place indoors or outdoors – also play a role.
In North Dakota, the likelihood of one person interacting with someone infected with the virus in a group of 10 people is nearly 90% in some parts of the state. The percentage increases as the size of the gathering increases.
A new national survey by Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center found that while most Americans plan to implement precautions at holiday gatherings, such as social distancing and asking those who show symptoms of COVID from not attending, many also put themselves at risk. The study found that nearly two in five say they will likely attend a gathering with more than 10 people and around a third of respondents said they would not ask guests to wear masks.
Nesemeier said the health department has seen cases of all types of gatherings, from sleepovers and birthdays to board meetings and weddings of all sizes.
“Anything you get together outside of your nuclear power plant or your immediate family continues to be a risk,” he said.
But North Dakotans need only look north across the border to understand the impact of small holiday gatherings.
Canada, which celebrated its own Thanksgiving in mid-October, has seen an increase in cases starting about two weeks after the October 12 holiday. Health officials across the country believe the Thanksgiving gatherings are at least in part to blame.
Dr. Laura Rosella, associate professor and epidemiologist at the University of Toronto’s Dalla Lana School of Public Health, told Time that even though the number of cases was already on the rise before Thanksgiving in Canada, the country has experienced its “greatest number to date” within two weeks of Thanksgiving.
Getting tested for COVID-19 is also becoming more difficult in Canada. Rosella said testing requirements have become more stringent.
Other health officials in Canada have also cited the October vacation as a factor in the increase in cases in early November. However, it’s still unclear exactly what impact Thanksgiving has had on the number of cases, but many have indicated that the timing is lining up.
In Manitoba, Dr Brent Roussin, chief public health officer for the province of Manitoba, said in late October that many of the province’s new cases at the time were linked to Thanksgiving gatherings, said reported in The Globe and Mail on October 26.
As of Wednesday, November 18, Manitoba had 7,385 active cases of COVID-19, according to the province’s dashboard. On October 12, Canada’s Thanksgiving, the province reported 67 daily cases, but two weeks later, on October 26, that number jumped to 200 daily cases. On November 10, Manitoba reported 508 cases in one day. The total number of active cases also increased during this period.
Nesemeier said there were “certainly lessons to be learned” from Canada’s Thanksgiving, as well as a vacation in the United States. He said there was an increase in cases after Halloween.
“Any party where people are unmasked and come together is a definite risk,” he said. “We want to keep our children in school, we want activities to continue, we want things to get back to normal. But the more people ignore public health recommendations, the longer the situation will last. “
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