Covid-19 image brightens in US, but virus is not over yet

“Things are fragile. Now is not the time to relax restrictions, ”Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said on Friday. “We can’t make ourselves comfortable.”

Covid-19 cases in the United States have declined in recent weeks, with the seven-day average dropping 74% since the January 11 peak, Dr Walensky said on Monday. Average daily hospital admissions, now 6,500 per day, fell 60% and are at their lowest level since the fall.

There is no single explanation for the declines, health officials say, but the biggest contributor is probably behavior change. People are probably taking more precautions, after the holiday season and a murderous winter in which the United States surpassed 500,000 total deaths from Covid-19. Additionally, state and local authorities have increased restrictions in response to the increase in numbers.

Epidemiologists also estimate roughly that at least a quarter of the population has had Covid-19, with most developing some level of immune response. This, combined with the relatively smaller number of people who have been fully vaccinated, reduces the number of susceptible people in the population and helps slow the spread. Vaccinations have also likely led to a drop in hospitalizations and deaths, having been rolled out to residents of nursing homes and long-term care facilities.

“We’re coming out of a holiday bubble and we’re coming out of a very dark, cold winter that could have kept people inside,” said Darlene Bhavnani, infectious disease epidemiologist at the University of Texas at Austin. “I hope that by being more outside and without a major vacation, we will continue to see these drops.”

Some states and counties have started to relax security measures since conditions improved. Almost a year after the start of the pandemic, many people and communities are eager to return to a more normal version of life. But public health officials advise caution, as another increase in cases in the spring is still on the table.

“The pressure to get back to something more normal will be immense and overwhelming,” said Robert Wachter, chair of the Department of Medicine at the University of California, San Francisco. “I hope we just think about it, that we don’t just declare victory and open the floodgates. This virus is smart and it will come back to bite us. “

Relaxing mitigation measures too aggressively or too early will likely lead to a rebound in cases – as happened last spring and summer, say Dr Bhavnani and other health officials.

Daily confirmed cases and hospitalizations, although down significantly from January, are at a level similar to peaks seen last summer, and declines have stabilized over the past week. Cases have increased in the past three days, compared to the previous week, and the recent change “needs to be taken very seriously,” Dr Walensky said.

The amount of immunity created by both infection and vaccination is still far from the 70% to 80% or more needed to stop the spread by population level immunity alone.

Newer and more transferable variants complicate the calculation. The variant that emerged in the UK can spread much more easily than previous versions of the virus and could become the dominant strain in the US in March. A variant that emerged in South Africa has shown some resistance to currently available vaccines and therapies.

“I am concerned that once we reach a level that seems safer for society, and people decide to relax the restrictions for communities or for themselves, we will see this return in the cases,” said Ajay Sethi, infectious disease epidemiologist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. “And in this case, it will be a comeback in the new variant which is more difficult to control.”

States and cities have responded to improving numbers with a patchwork of rules and regulations based on advice from their respective health departments, as elected officials attempt to navigate the ever-changing pandemic landscape. Some states, such as Iowa and North Dakota, have abandoned their mask mandates.

New York State, which recently reopened indoor New York City dining and limited capacity arenas, is also expected to expand visiting rules at retirement homes, allow 25% movie theater attendance, and increase attendance. weddings. State health officials are cautiously optimistic. “To date, we have administered over 3 million vaccines, but everyone must remember that this pandemic is not over,” said Jeffrey Hammond, a spokesperson for the state health department. from New York.

In Virginia, Democratic Gov. Ralph Northam said Wednesday he would lift the statewide curfew and restrictions on the number of people allowed to participate in outdoor gatherings, starting in March.

Lilian Peake, state epidemiologist at the Virginia Department of Health, said vaccines offer the most hope for fewer infections and a return to anything that looks like normal. “The vaccines we have are working well and are a way forward,” said Dr Peake.

Phoenix Mayor Kate Gallego said she would not rest until all residents and visitors coming to the city are vaccinated.

Arizona suffered a sharp rise in reported coronavirus infections during the summer of 2020, only for these new cases to be eclipsed by an even higher increase in the fall and winter. In summer, daily confirmed cases routinely exceeded 5,000, while in January, the number of cases steadily exceeded 10,000 per day, according to data from the Arizona Department of Health Services. In contrast, the daily number of cases this week was around 1,000.

“Like many people, I am encouraged to see the number of cases decrease,” said Ms. Gallego, a Democrat. “At the same time, I’m afraid I won’t celebrate too early.”

Write to Brianna Abbott at [email protected] and Talal Ansari at [email protected]