COVID-19 will shorten life expectancy in United States, study finds

The coronavirus pandemic will shorten the life expectancy at birth of Americans by about one year due to the more than 336,000 deaths from the disease in the United States in 2020, new research shows.

Researchers at the University of Southern California and Princeton predict that life expectancy will be reduced from 1.13 years to 77.48 years, according to their study, published Thursday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

This is the lowest estimated life expectancy since 2003 – and marks the biggest drop in a single year for at least 40 years, according to Science Daily.

The declines in longevity are likely even more pronounced among minority populations, according to the study.

For blacks, researchers predict that life expectancy would be shortened from 2.10 years to 72.78 years, and for Latinos, from 3.05 years to 78.77 years, according to the research.

For whites, the projected decline is 0.68 years for a life expectancy of 77.84 years – while overall, the life expectancy gap between blacks and whites is expected to widen by 40 %, from 3.6 to more than five years.

“Our study analyzes the effect of this exceptional number of deaths on the life expectancy of the entire nation, as well as the consequences for marginalized groups,” said study author Theresa Andrasfay, postdoctoral fellow at USC Leonard Davis School of Gerontology.

“The disproportionate effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the life expectancy of blacks and Latin Americans is likely related to their greater exposure through their workplace or extended family contacts, in addition to receiving care poorer health, resulting in more infections and worse outcomes, ”she added.

The coronavirus has apparently wiped out many of the gains made in narrowing the gap in life expectancy between blacks and whites since 2006, Science Daily reported.

Latinos, who experienced lower mortality than whites, would see their survival advantage of more than three years over whites reduced to less than a year.

“The huge drop in life expectancy for Latinos is particularly shocking given that Latinos have lower rates than white and black populations of most of the chronic diseases that are risk factors for COVID-19,” said study co-author Noreen Goldman, professor of demography. and public affairs in Princeton.

“The generally good health of Latinos before the pandemic, which should have protected them from COVID-19, laid bare the risks associated with social and economic disadvantage,” she said.

The study estimated life expectancy at birth and age 65 for 2020 for the entire U.S. population and by race and ethnicity.

Researchers used four death scenarios – one in which the pandemic did not occur and three that include COVID-19 mortality projections from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, an independent health research center World University of Washington.

“The biggest reductions in life expectancy for black and Latin populations are in part the result of a disproportionate number of deaths at younger ages for these groups,” Goldman said.

“These findings underscore the need for protective behaviors and programs to reduce potential viral exposure in young people who do not perceive themselves to be at high risk,” she added.

The predicted decline in life expectancy linked to the pandemic is about 10 times greater than the declines observed in recent years.

During the 1918 influenza pandemic, life expectancy was reduced from seven to twelve years.