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With hospitalizations now at record highs during the peak summer and the virus doubling every 42 days, the region is on the verge of having serious infections during the holidays.
For weeks, health officials have warned of the challenges ahead. Shelby County Health Department Director Alisa Haushalter noted the time had come on Tuesday.
“It is essential that we continue with the course and that we really focus on individual decision making, decisions for our families and decisions for our communities,” she said.
In addition to being hit hardest by infection levels in surrounding counties, the reproduction rate in Shelby County is 1.23. The Harvard Global Health Institute shows the seven-day average is 402 new cases.
A record COVID 835 new cases were reported on Tuesday.
On Christmas Day, models say 473 people will be in Shelby County hospitals with COVID. On Sunday the number was 361.
The Department of Health is exploring options for the types of restrictions to impose as the number of cases and transmission increases. The restrictions are described in the trigger wires.
Health ministry officials have not said they plan to enact restrictions soon, but thanks to 450 contact tracing interviews he conducted last week, he knows transmission occurs when people come together and take off their masks.
The categories most frequently mentioned in the interviews are socializing in small groups, dining out and working out in gyms.
“We are finding that these activities are over-represented among people with COVID-19 disease. And that gives us clues that these environments, as Dr Haushalter mentioned earlier, are the kind of places you take your mask off, ”said David Sweat, deputy director of the health department.
The decision to shut down businesses is based on careful examination of daily data, including the number of cases, hospitalizations, reproduction rate and the health department’s ability to do contact tracing.
Colleagues, including Dr Manoj Jain and Dr Jon McCullers, are invited to assess the data and report what they see in the field and what they hear from their colleagues across the country.
The data is shared with elected officials, which sometimes involves “heated debates,” Haushalter said.
Ultimately, it’s the health department along with Haushalter, Chief Medical Officer Dr Bruce Randolph and County Mayor Shelby Lee Harris who are working with legal oversight to promulgate the health guidelines.
The economic impact of any decision in a directive is debated first, as well as the impact that quarantined people could have on their ability to feed themselves, their families and their bills, she said. declared.
As the holidays approach, the safety of small, intimate gatherings becomes more and more urgent for families who even get together with one or two other people outside of their homes.
To illustrate the danger, St. Mary’s Episcopal School Senior School went to distance learning on November 5 after six girls tested positive in the school’s weekly insurance tests.
“St. Mary’s is following the model we see in national and international news, ”said Albert Throckmorton, Director. “We don’t see any transmission on campus. Two of the girls recounted their activity at off-campus gatherings.
St. Mary’s Graduate School will continue with distance learning for the remainder of this week. He intends to resume classes in person on November 30.
City districts have reported 56 cases of positive students and 26 among staff in the past seven days. In addition to the six cases in St. Mary’s, other independent schools in Memphis-Shelby County have reported 31 cases.
If the Department of Health shuts down businesses or issues restrictions, it does not have the power to dictate what happens in churches, even though it knows that transmission occurs in congregations.
St. Ann’s Catholic Church in Bartlett canceled all services this week after announcing Saturday, Nov. 14 that St. Ann’s pastor Father Ernie DeBlasio had tested positive the day before.
From contact tracing interviews, the Department of Health also knows that four in five people have symptoms and a large percentage of people who are unwell continue to work and socialize for up to three days. with symptoms.
A worker, who was likely symptomatic, went to various buildings on the job over the course of three days.
“Ultimately, for that person, around 40 to 45 people will be quarantined. Of those 45 people, some may end up with COVID, ”Haushalter said.
“It’s an essential element that we constantly pass on. If you are sick, even if you have minor symptoms, please get tested and stay home. “
The county has the capacity to test 14,000 people per day at a variety of drive-in clinics across town. For a list, go to shelby.community.
While masking surveys continue to show high percentages of use in retail establishments, the fabric slips when people are in small gatherings.
“Where people are probably not quite there yet is wearing a mask around someone like a family member who does not live in their household,” Haushalter said. “At first we used to talk about wearing a mask in public, but now we’re really saying wear a mask when you’re with people who aren’t in your household.”
The news continues to be good regarding vaccinations and treatments. But even with the high efficacy of the candidate vaccines, it will be weeks before there is a distribution here and months before they are widely available, Harris said.
“Until then, we all have to work to continue the course,” he said.
Harris, who had led the campaign for mask warrants outside Shelby County, is working this week to advocate for the cause in western Tennessee and across the region, including DeSoto County, where case rates per 100,000 are now comparable to those in Shelby County.
“The Department of Health and other stakeholders and yours will really meet with these leaders,” Harris said. “There are 21 counties in western Tennessee and 70 cities in western Tennessee. And so, we will try, as best we can, to encourage anyone who can to take a mandatory masking approach. It will help everyone in our area.
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