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Fully vaccinated Michiganders have accounted for a larger share of COVID-19 cases and state hospitalizations in recent weeks, including 23.4% of cases and 28.1% of hospitalizations in the past 30 days.
However, doctors say there is significant background which, when paired with this data, continues to show that vaccines remain significantly effective in preventing serious illness and death from COVID-19.
“People need to realize that there is more to the numbers, and there is a story behind the numbers,” said Dr. Liam Sullivan, infectious disease specialist at Spectrum Health in Grand Rapids.
“It’s not just looking at the surface of it (percentage). This does not mean that the vaccine fails, not by any stretch of the imagination. I would say if you really start to look at the numbers closely, the numbers show that the vaccine has been very effective. “
During the past 30 days, fully vaccinated residents accounted for 6,151 of 26,272 total cases; 198 of 704 total hospitalizations; and 10 of 65 deaths from COVID, according to the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services.
These rates are higher than those reported in a six-month period between Jan. 15 and July 28, when Michigan’s fully vaccinated population accounted for 9,718 of 398,302 COVID-19 cases, or 2.4% ; 643 of 11,691 hospitalizations, or 5.5%; and 246 of 4,888 deaths from COVID-19, or 5%.
Fully vaccinated people accounted for less than 1% of total cases in January, February and March. That number has increased every month since, possibly due to the increased presence of the delta variant, which infects its host better, replicates and spreads from person to person.
The first traces of the delta variant in Michigan appeared in June, the same month, the rate of rupture cases compared to the total number of cases rose to 12%. In July, fully vaccinated individuals accounted for 21% of cases because the presence of the delta variant rapidly increased among the sequenced test samples.
Another factor in the recent increase in reported breakthroughs could be the impact of immunosenescence, or aging of the immune system, on vaccine responsiveness, Dr. Sullivan noted. Older people can sometimes see their immunity to vaccines wane more quickly than the general public, which is why people 65 years of age and older are usually given a higher dose of the seasonal flu vaccine than younger people to get a better dose. similar immune response.
Health officials have already started offering booster doses to people who are immunocompromised. In addition, the United States plans to begin offering third-dose mRNA vaccines in late September for recipients who received their second dose at least eight months previously. The timeline is based on data from Israel and other countries on the decrease in vaccine effectiveness over time, according to CDC director Rochelle Walensky.
Regarding hospitalizations, Sullivan said the majority of hospitalized patients who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 fall into one of two categories.
First there are the “incidental findings,” which include those who entered the hospital for a procedure or to be treated for something other than COVID-19, but who tested positive for the virus while they were in the hospital. were there.
All inpatients entering Spectrum hospitals are tested for COVID. If they are positive, the health system should report their case as hospitalization and take the necessary precautions to prevent spreading to other patients, including moving them to a private room and following other protocols defined by the state and federal guidelines.
The other large category, Sullivan noted, is fully vaccinated patients who have experienced waning immunity due to their weakened immune systems. These patients may be elderly and / or have conditions / medications that reduce their ability to fight infection.
“In the vast majority of (vaccinated and symptomatic patients), there is an underlying reason why they had a breakthrough case… they are either immunosuppressed, they are taking drugs that affect them, their age, etc.
In Michigan, case rates are increasing in both vaccinated and unvaccinated people, but people who are not fully vaccinated have case rates seven times higher than those who are fully vaccinated and death rates 30 times higher. higher than those of fully vaccinated people, according to the state health department.
Finally, Sullivan said that it was to be expected that as the vaccinated population increases, the percentage of infections belonging to vaccinated individuals will also increase “because of the number alone.”
“And I would say this right now, the majority of our critically ill hospital patients are definitely not vaccinated,” Sullivan said. “This has been true since vaccines became available.”
During the same period, between January 15 and July 28, unvaccinated Michiganders accounted for 388,584 of cases, or 97.6%, 11,048 of hospitalizations, or 94.5%, and 4,642 of deaths, or 95%, according to MDHHS data.
Researchers have found that fully vaccinated people tend to report mild to moderate symptoms more often, if any, while unvaccinated people are more likely to experience serious illness upon infection.
At the Henry Ford Health System, Dr Adnan Munkarah said the majority of COVID patients in intensive care are unvaccinated, and nine out of 10 on ventilators as of Tuesday were unvaccinated. Among the vaccinated inpatient population, most are 60 years of age or older and have underlying health problems.
“There is no doubt that unvaccinated people show more serious signs and represent the majority of the most seriously ill,” said Munkarah, executive vice president and clinical director of Henry Ford Health System.
“We realize that the vaccination is not 100%. We know that there are breakthrough infections, we know that these breakthrough infections do exist with the delta variant, but there is no doubt, when you compare the proportionality, that unvaccinated people continue to make up the majority of cases within our hospital, including the vast majority of people who are in the intensive care unit.
Asked about recent increases in the number of people vaccinated testing positive or ending up in hospitals, Munkarah said it was important to interpret actual vaccine data with caution. Unlike clinical trials, where all vaccinees are evaluated, health officials have to rely on self-report and people tested for themselves to get an accurate case rate.
“We know the vaccines are about 90% effective, and that’s even before the delta variant,” he said. “So we know you’re going to have a 10% breakthrough based on the data we’ve had from the start. “
To date, Michigan has reported 12,121 cases in which a person has tested positive for the coronavirus more than two weeks after receiving their last dose of the vaccine. Of more than 4.9 million fully vaccinated residents, that’s a known breakthrough rate of less than 1%.
The vaccines are widely available in Michigan. To find a vaccine near you, visit the Michigan COVID-19 vaccine website.
Learn more about MLive:
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