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As COVID-19 cases explode in Tennessee, residents of Shelby County can expect new limits on socialization early next week. It is not yet clear what they will understand, but one of them will likely limit gatherings to 10 people or less.
It comes as Tennessee has climbed to number one spot for the spread of the disease in follow-up studies conducted separately by the New York Times and the Financial Times.
Earlier this week, Tennessee was ranked second in new cases by the White House Coronavirus Task Force, which has given stern indications that the state is immediately stepping up testing, reducing capacity, or shutting down indoor gathering places.
Shelby County Health Department officials have been writing a new health directive for more than a week. On Thursday, December 17, director Alisa Haushalter said what was supposed to be a simple rewrite to clarify language will now have more teeth.
“We know we are growing exponentially. This growth is happening because people continue to socialize together in their homes, in public places in more places and so on. Everything we do is going to have to diminish people’s ability to come together and socialize, ”said Haushalter.
Every avenue is being considered, she said, including national recommendations.
In Shelby County, discussions of potentially limiting gatherings involve all mayors and members of the local COVID-19 task force, which includes hospital administrators.
The Health Directive 15, which came into effect on November 23, did not close bars and restaurants because city authorities opposed it. As of Nov. 19, the seven-day case average was 330. At 450, the shutdown is warranted, according to triggers released by the Department of Health in early August.
As of December 10, the seven-day average of new cases was 670.
With a reproduction rate of 1.06, the 6,044 people currently contagious in the county are expected to create 7,138 new cases by January 16, a 30-day period that includes Christmas and New Years.
These numbers of cases, according to Haushalter realistically, represent only a fifth of people who are actively infectious.
The same exponential trajectory will take place for the cases announced in the coming days. For the first time on Thursday, that number surpassed 1,000 to 1,163.
Pending interventions, Haushalter said, must include ways to stem the tide over Christmas. Health officials say their modeling and contact tracing connect 70% of new cases to small Thanksgiving gatherings held in people’s homes.
In the White House task force report, Tennessee has 639 new cases per 100,000 people. The national average is 451, said Dr Bruce Randolph, health officer for the Shelby County Department of Health.
Such high transmission rates, according to the White House task force, are forcing Tennessee officials to tell people 65 and older with underlying conditions that entering any interior space where people are unmasked is a risk. immediate for health. These people should have the essentials delivered to their homes.
People under the age of 40 who meet with people outside their homes should assume they are infected.
“If the data just presented doesn’t grab people’s attention, I’m not sure what will,” said Doug McGowen, City of Memphis chief operating officer.
While Tennessee maps show extremely high transmission levels, Shelby County ranks sixth among the state’s 95 counties.
“So what you’re doing is working. But I want to stress again that now is the time to take precautions. You shouldn’t get together with people outside of your family, ”McGowen said.
“Yes, we have taken a dark step forward of over 750 cases per day. The data shows that most people give this to each other – people they know, people they trust, people they know, ”he said.
As a reminder, these gatherings include house parties, weddings, and funerals – basically, anywhere people congregate.
“If you have symptoms related to COVID, don’t leave your house because you think it’s just seasonal allergies,” McGowen said.
Cases in the state are highest in eastern Tennessee, and while she was unwilling to isolate an area, Haushalter said masks are not used as widely as in Shelby County. She also noted that Knox County has halted or will soon halt contact tracing, the method of identifying people who have been in contact with positive cases and isolating them quickly.
“We know this is a critical part of successfully reducing transmission,” she said.
Shelby County has used schools, hospitals and employers for the contact tracing.
“As the cases increase, everyone is stepping in and helping isolate or quarantine people,” Haushalter said. “This is not happening in Knox County. I think it’s a combination of all of these factors that make eastern Tennessee a little different than where we are now in Shelby County.
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