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Announcing his arbitrations on the energy trajectory of France as part of his speech this morning at the Elysee Palace, Emmanuel Macron has cut the Gordian knot of the reduction of the share of the atom in the production of electricity. But without doing too much harm to EDF: of the 58 reactors that currently make up the French fleet, the electrician will have to close "Fourteen nuclear reactors by 2035", or twelve additional reactors after the already announced shutdown of the two units of the Fessenheim (Haut-Rhin) plant that the head of state has confirmed for "Summer 2020". As part of the multiannual energy program that covers the periods 2018-2023 and 2024-2028, EDF did not want to close a reactor before 2029. The group's CEO, Jean-Bernard Lévy, lost this battle and must follow the course set by the State shareholder who holds 84% of EDF.
But the camp of the atom has saved the essential: namely the maintenance of a "nuclear base" very important, which will ensure that France will remain for a long time one of the most nuclearized countries in the world. Emmanuel Macron has certainly confirmed the initial objective of the law on the energy transition, aiming to reduce to 50% the share of the atom in the production of electricity (against a little more than 70% currently), which has already been postponed by ten years: "We decided to stay the course, but pushing the deadline to 2035"he recalled. But on closer inspection, the number and pace of nuclear reactor closures do not reflect a strong inflection: of the twelve reactors of 900 MW which will have to stop in addition to the two units of Fessenheim, only "Four to six reactors" will have to stop all production "By 2030", said the President.
And if one believes the more precise arbitrations transmitted by the Elysee Palace to AFP, the government actually provides only two additional closures of reactors "In 2027-2028", and two others could intervene earlier, in 2025-2026, but "Under conditions": "If security of supply is badured" and "if our European neighbors accelerate their energy transition", in particular by reducing the weight of coal and developing renewables. So at least two reactors would have to close between 2028 and 2030 to reach the four to six announced …
Tricastin, Bugey and Cruas top the list
Emmanuel Macron did not name the plants targeted by these closures: EDF will have to set the precise list. But there will be "No complete closure of the sites"Assured the head of state to try to rebadure employees and elected officials of nuclear facilities threatened. You do not have to be a big clerk to guess the list of reactors likely to be arrested: they are the oldest, built at the end of the 70s and will reach 40 years of age in 2028, which EDF hoped to extend further. ten years after the approval of the Nuclear Safety Authority. These aging reactors are found in Tricastin (Drôme and Vaucluse), Bugey (Ain) and Cruas (Ardèche) …
If the Elysee emphasizes that Emmanuel Macron is "The first President to set a real course of closure of nuclear reactors", the bulk of the task will actually be his successor at the Elysee or himself if he is re-elected in 2022. No closure should indeed occur under this quinquennium outside Fessenheim, whose judgment will be taken in 2020, when the Flamanville EPR will finally enter service eight years late and a bill multiplied by three, to 11 billion euros. About the EPR precisely, Macron kicked in touch. Yes "The EPR must be part of the energy mix of tomorrow", the President did not give the green light to the construction of a new copy of this large 1600 MW reactor whose construction turned into a nightmare for EDF at the Flamanville site. The Minister of the Economy, Bruno Le Maire, and his counterpart at the Ecological and Solidarity Transition, François de Rugy, had already warned that there would be no new EPR until Flamanville had entered into service. . But the Flamanville shipyard is currently at a standstill after the discovery of a new weld problem on the reactor cooling circuits. It will not be able to start as well as in the second half of 2020, when the repair work required by the nuclear gendarme will have been done.
"Serial effect"
In these conditions, the head of state put the electrician before his responsibilities: "I ask EDF to work on developing a" new nuclear "program by making firm price commitments to make them more competitive. Everything must be ready in 2021 so that the choice that will be offered to the French can be a transparent and enlightened choice. " Clearly, not only will the EPR be safe, but it will have to significantly reduce its construction costs to offer electricity at a price at least equivalent to renewable energy. A challenge when we know that the tariffs negotiated for the Hinkley Point EPR across the Channel flirt with the 100 euros megawatt hour, when the price of onshore wind has dropped below the 65 euros mark in recent calls for tenders. . But EDF, which initially hoped to get a green light for two to six new EPR, relies on "The series effect" to reduce costs.
By choosing to announce four to six closures by 2030, Emmanuel Macron, approaches the scenario that was proposed to him by his Minister of the ecological transition, François de Rugy (six closures), against and against the scenario ultra-favorable to EDF (zero closing within this period) advocated by the Minister of Economy, Bruno Le Maire. A message backed by the environmental electorate and fans of Nicolas Hulot before the end of the European elections, which worries the Republic a lot. He has also announced very ambitious objectives to develop the ENR which will benefit from a support of "7 to 8 billion euros a year", instead of 5 billion: installed wind power will have to "triple" by 2030 and that of photovoltaics will have to be "Multiplied by five" in the same time. Without this, the goal of reducing the atom to 50% of the electricity mix will be untenable, even if Macron has badured that "stop linking the rise of renewables to the exit of nuclear power ", as do the antinuclear ones. In the end, the President again made "at the same time": "Reducing nuclear energy does not mean giving up nuclear energy"he warned. EDF can breathe, France has not finished with the atom.
Jean-Christophe Féraud
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