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"If you want peace, prepare for war". In the Renault-Nissan Alliance, the old adage has never been so true. In front, everything is fine. The meeting of the Alliance Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi held Thursday in Amsterdam (the first since the spectacular arrest of its CEO, Carlos Ghosn, ten days earlier) concluded with a statement can not more cryptic. The three groups "Unanimously and with conviction", reaffirmed "Their deep attachment to the Alliance", for which they remain "Fully engaged". As expected, the CEOs of the three groups, Hiroto Saikawa (Nissan), Thierry Bolloré (Renault) and Osamu Masuko (Mitsubishi) participated by videoconference. "The meeting has remained very operational", says one at Renault.
No acting president
According to Hiroto Saikawa and Osamu Masuko, who spoke after the meeting from Japan, no interim president will be appointed. As long as the fate of Carlos Ghosn is not decided (he is still presumed innocent and CEO of Renault), decisions will be taken to three, they said. "This solution can only be temporary, it is not operational", points out another French source. At Renault, we do not comment.
But no one in France today imagines anyone other than Thierry Bolloré as President of the Alliance – according to the statutes, according to which this post belongs to Renault's boss. "The Renault CEO must remain the president of the Alliance", insisted Tuesday the Minister of Economy, Bruno Le Maire (the state holds 15% of Renault).
Goatee
Behind the displayed harmony, French and Japanese began to identify their weapons and brandish the threats, more or less explicitly. And this, even if no one dares to believe, for the moment, the extreme scenario of the open war. In "off" Nissan makes no secret of his wish to see the Alliance rebalanced in his favor. A contingency excluded by Bruno Le Maire. "I do not want any change in the balance of power between Renault and Nissan. Sharing is good, balance is good »he said on Wednesday. Renault owns 43.3% of Nissan, which owns only 15% of the Diamond, without voting rights.
"Each of the two groups has a lot to lose, and none of them will want to take responsibility for shooting first", hopes a Renault executive. This does not prevent everyone from carefully studying their legal options behind the scenes. "We are a little today in the balance of terror", says another source close to the file. "Everyone stands by the goatee". If one of the parties breaks the famous Rama, the secret agreement between Renault and Nissan, the other would be immediately released from its obligations.
Threat of absolute control
Thus, if Nissan increased its stake to 25%, it would de facto deprive the diamond of its voting rights at home. Renault, for its part, can brandish the threat of rising above 50%, and move to a situation of absolute control. A scenario that the French state does not exclude, as said Wednesday a government adviser to "Echos".
Be that as it may, if Nissan were to go on the offensive, the case would be handled by the French courts and the Association des Marchés Financiers (AMF), Renault being a company under French law. Everyone in Paris, however, hopes not to get there.
To note
The Japanese public prosecutor is expected to decide this Friday on the extension of the detention of Carlos Ghosn for 10 additional days. In Paris, there is still no evidence or concrete evidence on the charges that the CEO of Renault is the subject.
Anne Feitz
Julien Dupont-Calbo
Valérie de Senneville
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