Emmanuel Macron claims that air pollution causes 48,000 deaths per year, is that true?

Question asked by the 27/11/2018

Every day, find the green thread, the environment meeting of Libération. Once a week, CheckNews answers an environment question.

Hello,

Your question is about a part of Emmanuel Macron's speech of November 27th, included in this tweet.

This slaughter is 48,000 deaths a year, more than all road accidents, all suicides, all murders, all drownings, all domestic accidents combined. pic.twitter.com/PlluDGvfEX

– Emmanuel Macron (@EmmanuelMacron) November 27, 2018

This figure, of which one finds very numerous occurrences in the media and the political speech, is drawn from a 2016 study of Public health on the health impacts of the air pollution in France. Public Health France gives "a national estimate of the weight of fine particle pollution (PM2.5) in relation to human activity". This figure of 48,000 deaths per year is consistent with that of a European study published in 2000 which estimated this figure at about 40,000.

The gap may seem big, but these numbers are only averages. The confidence interval (details here) ranges from 17,527 to 74,426. That is, the exact actual value has a 95% chance of being in that range.

These results can be presented differently. According to the same badysis, inhabitants of more than 100,000 inhabitants lose 15 months of life expectancy at 30 years due to PM2.5 and 9 months for those in rural areas.

You ask us if these numbers are "true". Let's look at the scientific literature in the field.

According to the latest figures from the University of Chicago Institute of Energy Policy (EPIC), the excessive concentration of fine particles reduces the life expectancy of 1.8 years per person worldwide, compared to smoking (1, 6 years less life expectancy) or alcohol and drug use (11 months). Pollution would therefore have a greater impact at the global level than at the French level. A recent international study also considers that "the potential health benefits of improved air quality in the most polluted countries are greater than previously estimated".

According to Isabella Annesi-Maesano, epidemiologist at Inserm, the figure of 48,000 in the hexagon is also probably undervalued. According to his latest work, in metropolitan France, exposure to fine particles, even at concentrations that are not considered excessive, generates a significantly increased risk of mortality (whatever the cause).

She was also interested in the 2.3% of children born too lean (less than 2.5 kg). It estimates that one in four can be attributed to air quality and that the total cost of care over their entire life costs 1.2 billion euros.

Air pollution is not only responsible for cardiovascular or respiratory problems. Isabella Annesi-Maesano cosigns a joint article from members of the European Society of Respiratory Diseases (ERS) and the American Thoracic Society (ATS) lists the effects of air pollution on health. Heart, lung, but also nervous system diseases or diabetes and premature births can be favored by pollution.

cordially

Olivier Monod