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According to our latest Elabe poll for BFMTV, 75% of French people approve yellow vests, and support is up 5 points. Results that sound like a defeat for the executive, while it multiplies the advertisements and ensures to have "heard" the anger of the French. According to Thierry Arnaud, editorialist of BFMTV, and Bernard Sananès, the president of the polling institute Elabe, only the announcement of a moratorium on the increase of fuel taxes would have a real positive effect on opinion. Whatever the outcome of this crisis, it could be that the president and the prime minister are losers every time.
Bernard Sananès – "The French do not believe in the posture" of the executive
"Neither the image of the Champs-Elysees, nor the speech of Emmanuel Macron, have helped to diminish the approval of this mobilization.It seems that everyone is listening, but no one does not really listen, this poll says: 81% of respondents believe that Emmanuel Macron and the government are not listening to the claims of yellow vests.
That means that all the signs that have been addressed, several mea culpa, openings for dialogue with the yellow vests, we saw yesterday around François de Rugy at the Elysee, all this new posture, the French do not do not believe it. Why? Because there was not the symbolic measure of who would have allowed – obviously on the increase of taxes on fuel – to say 'we have not just listened to you but we have heard you' ".
Thierry Arnaud – "We'll have to make decisions under pressure"
"This is a catastrophic survey for the executive, catastrophic for the president in particular, because this survey was done after his speech.The things are deteriorating even within his electorate: 58% of voters Emmanuel Macron in first round approve of this movement.
59% of voters Emmanuel Macron consider that he is not listening, it really means that at this stage, we do not see how the position of Emmanuel Macron and Edouard Philippe is tenable in the duration. Maybe they will go on, that I will be denied by the facts, maybe the movement will run out of steam, but given the state of public opinion as a whole, the approval Majority in this movement, including in the president's own first-round electorate (…), we will have to make decisions under pressure.
The feeling we have tonight is that the executive has been late every time. The 500 million measures announced by Edouard Philippe came too late, the speech of Emmanuel Macron yesterday probably would not have had the same effect if it had been held a week or even two weeks earlier.
If the next step is the moratorium, basically the president will have accumulated two disadvantages: he will have suffered the negative effect of obstinacy, which will have lasted long enough, and he will then suffer the negative effect of the one who gives in, if we come to that. This is a hypothesis, not a prognosis, but it is hard to see how the government will be able to hold, and some within the majority are asking the same question ".
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