half of diabetics will not be able to afford insulin within 12 years

Diabetes is spreading around the world, but tens of millions of people will not be able to receive treatment if access and cost of insulin are not significantly improved to meet record demand, according to a report. study published Wednesday, November 21 in the journal Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology.

The lack is particularly acute in Africa. The team of Dr. Sanjay Basu of Stanford University, one of the authors of the study, estimated that the supply should be multiplied by seven in twelve years. "These estimates suggest that current levels of insulin access are really inadequate in relation to projected needs, particularly in Africa and Asia"said Dr. Basu.

The three leading global suppliers, Novo Nordisk Pharmaceuticals, Sanofi and Eli Lilly, have developed programs to improve access to their products. But insulin remains expensive. Complex supply chains and high profit margins often make it unaffordable for many patients, especially in the poorest countries.

An increase in demand of more than 20%

Diabetes – which can lead to blindness, kidney failure, heart problems, neuropathic pain and amputations – affects 9% of adults worldwide, up from 5% in 1980. The vast majority of people with diabetes have diabetes mellitus. type 2, linked to obesity and lack of exercise. Cases are increasing particularly rapidly in developing countries, whose populations are increasingly adopting Western and urban lifestyles.

According to the researchers, the amount of insulin needed to effectively treat this type of diabetes will increase by more than 20% over the next twelve years, but the drug will be out of reach for half of the 79 million type 2 diabetics who will need it in 2030.

" Despite the UN's commitment to treating noncommunicable diseases and ensuring universal access to diabetes medications, in much of the world insulin is scarce and its access is unnecessarily difficult for patients " points out Dr. Sanjay Basu. With his team, he calculated that the amount of insulin needed should increase from 526 million vials of 1,000 units in 2018 to 634 million by 2030.

Their study, funded by Helmsley Charitable Trust, builds on diabetes prevalence projections by the International Diabetes Federation. In an accompanying commentary, Dr. Hertzel Gerstein of McMaster University of Canada warns that forecasts must be treated with caution because they are based on mathematical models. However, he stresses the importance of estimating and guaranteeing insulin supplies.