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DEGRINGOLADE – Raised very high in October (nearly 87 dollars for the barrel of Brent), the black gold now confirms week after week its decline (61 dollars this Tuesday noon). In particular, an overproduction supported by Donald Trump. Result: at the pump, the price of fuels is also down.
– Laurence VALDÉS
In theory, the black gold could have exceeded the $ 100 a barrel (159 liters) this fall, according to some specialists having risked giving their forecasts. In fact, crude oil prices have tumbled 30% since their peak on October 3rd. They recovered slightly on Monday and Tuesday, after a 10% retreat last week, the biggest weekly fall in almost three years.
The Brent, the European reference crude, even pbaded brutally below the symbolic mark of 60 dollars last Friday, before trading at 60.70 dollars on Tuesday, November 27 at noon. Quotations far removed from the more than $ 86 hit seven weeks ago. Light sweet crude (WTI), the American reference, dropped to 50 dollars Friday to resume some colors, eventually trading at 51.60 euros on Tuesday at noon. A quote still very far from the 76 dollars from the beginning of October.
These two prices have not fallen so low since October 2017. In the case, an oversupplied supply from Russia and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) – Saudi Arabia in the lead – which is now lowering the prices of barrel – and therefore, with a lag, the price of fuel at the pump. Not to mention that, for its part, American production is in full swing, thanks to a frenzied exploitation of shale oil.
Previously, the arrival of the implementation of the US oil embargo on Iran on November 4 had, conversely, provoked by anticipation of price pressures. The courses then flew to their highest level in four years as the dreaded restrictions approached. Until, under the leadership of Donald Trump, the situation does not turn around. The day before the restrictions were put in place, the US president had finally granted exemptions to eight countries, including China and India.
Eyes are now turned to the next meeting of OPEC in early December in Vienna, during which it may be decided to reduce the wing to break the spiral of decline. What would displease Donald Trump who does his best to maintain the pressure, as evidenced by his tweet posted Monday: "It's so great that oil prices fall (thank you President T).
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