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The main European stock markets should open slightly higher on Monday at the edge of a week that looks busy on the front of the central banks, including the highly anticipated appointment of the Federal Reserve (Fed)
(Updated with index futures, Tokyo close, bond market opening in Europe)
- * The CAC 40 could win 0.1% after finishing in the red Friday
- * Asia driven by the rebound of Hong Kong
- * Central banks on the menu of the week, including the Fed
- * Expectations of support will have to be confirmed
by Blandine Henault
PARIS, June 17 (Reuters) – Europe's major stock markets are expected to rise slightly on Monday at the start of a busy week ahead of central banks, including the long-awaited Federal Reserve meeting. American (Fed).
According to the futures contracts, the Paris CAC 40 .FCHI could gain 0.06% at the opening, the Dax in Frankfurt .GDAXI would increase by 0.15% and the FTSE in London .FTSE would take 0.14%.
European stock indices ended in the red Friday, weighed down by fears over the impact of trade tensions between the United States and China on the real economy after gloomy Chinese indicators and the profit warning of the US manufacturer. Broadcom AVGO.O semiconductors.
Expectations of accommodating measures by major central banks nevertheless continue to support equity markets. The Fed meets Tuesday and Wednesday its monetary policy committee and many market participants believe that it could on this occasion prepare the ground for a future rate cut.
Good US indicators released Friday on consumption and industrial production pushed back the probability of a rate cut this week to 17.5% against 28% Thursday but the chances of a cut in July are still estimated at 84% according to the FedWatch barometer from CME Group.
Some fear, however, that the market has been too optimistic about a Fed turnaround on its rates, which could augur a disappointment in the monetary policy decision Wednesday night.
"Since the change of direction at the beginning of the year, Fed officials have consistently said that they are committed to the indicators and that they will be patient when it comes to changing rates. "There really is no reason to change your mind about this, given the current and the latest statistics," points out Michael Hewson, at CMC Markets.
In addition to the Fed, other central banks are expected in the week, such as the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England on Thursday.
Investors will also continue to monitor the development of the trade relationship between the United States and China, as well as the geopolitical tensions between Washington and Tehran, and the macroeconomic indicators, including euro area PMI expected Friday.
VALUES TO FOLLOW:
Lufthansa LHAG.DE is expected down sharply in opening after throwing a "profit warning" Sunday night.
For its part, Deutsche Bank DBKGn.DE could be surrounded after the Financial Times reports that the German bank plans to reorganize its trading activities by creating a "bad bank" and reducing or closing its activities in the United States.
WALL STREET
The futures on the US indexes for the moment indicate a slightly higher opening on Monday after the decline observed Friday evening during a session marked both by geopolitical tensions, a disappointing Chinese economic indicator and the decline of the semi sector. -conductors after the Broadcom warning.
The Dow Jones .DJI index lost 0.07% and the S & P-500 .SPX dropped 0.16%. The Nasdaq Composite .IXIC fell by 0.52%.
Broadcom's warning (-5.57%) weighed on the entire semiconductor sector, whose benchmark .SOX dropped 2.61%, its worst performance on a session since 20 may.
Over the week, the Dow gained 0.41%, S & P-500 gained 0.48% and Nasdaq gained 0.71%. The S & P thus posted an increase of 4.9% since the beginning of the month.
IN ASIA
The Asian markets are supported Monday by the rebound of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange .HSI (+ 0.63%) after the announcement of the release of the Hong Kong pro-democracy activist Joshua Wong who intervenes the day after a demonstration which reunited two million people according to the organizers, come to reject the disputed bill on extradition to China.
The composite index of the Shanghai Stock Exchange .SSEC advance by 0.33% while the Tokyo Stock Exchange .N225 trimmed its earnings at the end of the session to end up virtually unchanged (+ 0.03%).
RATE
The 10-year US10YT = RR yield was virtually stable on Monday, around 2.1%, after recovering Friday after the release of good US indicators that have at least temporarily removed the fears of a marked slowdown in growth. Economic Growth.
In Europe, the yield of the German Bund of the same maturity DE10YT = RR also changes without much change in the first exchanges, to -0.253%.
EXCHANGE
The dollar moves little Monday against a basket of reference currencies, after rebounding sharply Friday (+ 0.58%) following the encouraging US statistics. It remains so close to a peak since June 3. .DXY
At the same time, the euro has returned around 1.1210 dollars. EUR =
OIL
Crude prices continue to be buoyed by tensions in the Middle East after two oil tankers attacked Thursday in the Gulf of Oman, exacerbating tensions between Iran and the United States and its allies.
The barrel of Brent LCOc1 evolves to more than 62 dollars and that of the American light crude (WTI) CLc1 to 52,5 dollars.
See as well:
* WEEKLY POINT-Central banks under pressure from worried markets
* MANAGEMENT-The flows stagnate, cash reigns in master-BAML
MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS AT THE 17 JUNE AGENDA:
COUNTRIES GMT INDICATOR PERIOD CONSENSUS PREVIOUS EZ 09h00 Labor costs T1 n. + 2.3% USA 12:30 Manufacturing Index "Empire State" June 12.0 17.8 USA 14:00 NAHB real estate market index June 66 66
MARKET SITUATION
(Some data may show a slight shift)
ASIAN SCHOLARSHIPS
Indices Last Var. Var. % YTD points Nikkei-225 21124.00 +7.11 + 0.03% + 5.54% .N225 Topix 1539.74 -6.97 -0.45% + 3.06% .TOPX Hong Kong 27290.38 +172.03 + 0.63% + 5.59% .HSI Taiwan 10530.54 + 5.87 + 0.06% -1.68% .TWII Seoul 2088.50 -6.91 -0.33% + 2.33% .KS11 Singapore 3216.78 -5.85 -0.18% + 4.82% .STI Shanghai 2891.86 +9.89 + 0.34% + 15.96% .SSEC Sydney 6530.90 -23.10 -0.35% + 15.66% .AXJO The fence in Tokyo: .TFR
WALL STREET
Previous Closing:
Indices Last Var. Var. % YTD points Dow Jones 26089.61 -17.16 -0.07% + 11.84% .DJI S & P-500 2886.98 -4.66 -0.16% + 15.16% .SPx Nasdaq 7796.66 -40.47 -0.52% + 17.50% .IXIC Nasdaq 100 7479.11 -31.57 -0.42% + 18.15% NDX
Detail of the session on Wall Street: .NFR
"The Day Ahead" – Update on the next session on Wall Street DAY / US
EUROPEAN MARKETS
Futures on the CAC 40 0 # FCE: and on the EuroStoxx50 0 # STXE:
Values to follow in Paris and in Europe: WATCH / LFR
The previous session:
Indices Closing Var. Var. % YTD points Eurofirst 1490.84 -5.38 -0.36% + 11.98% 300 .FTEU3 Eurostoxx 3379,19 -11,31 -0,33% + 12,59% 50 <.stoxx50e> CAC 40 5367.62 -8.01 -0.15% + 13.46% .FCHI Dax 30 12096.40 -72.65 -0.60% + 14.56% .GDAXI FTSE 7345.78 -22.79 -0.31% + 9.18% .FTSE SMI 9847.61 -14.22 -0.14% + 16.83% .SSMI
EXCHANGE
Course Watch Var. % YTD
Euro / Dlr 1,1209 1,1207 + 0.02% -2.27%
EUR =
Dlr / Yen 108.58 108.55 + 0.03% -1.52%
JPY =
Euro / Yen 121.70 121.69 + 0.01% -3.58%
EURJPY =
Dlr / CHF 0.9994 0.9989 + 0.05% + 1.83%
CHF =
Euro / CHF 1,1204 1,1196 + 0.07% -0.44%
EURCHF =
Stg / Dlr 1.2587 1.2590 -0.02% -1.33%
GBP =
Index $ 97.5300 97.5720 -0.04% + 1.41%
.DXY
RATE
Last Var. Spread / Bund
(Pts)
Bund 10 years -0.2530 +0.0030
DE10YT = RR
Bund 2 years -0.6900 -0.0010
DE2YT = RR
OAT 10 years 0.0942 +0.0010 +34.72
Treasury 10 years 2,1011 +0,0070
US10YT = RR
Treasury 2 years 1,8646 +0.0140
US2YT = RR = RR>
OIL
(in progress Previous Var Var% YTD dollars) t Light crude oil 52.50 52.51 -0.01 -0.02% + 14.60% US CLc1 Brent 62.09 62.01 +0.08 + 0.13% + 14.66% LCOc1
(Edited by Wilfrid Exbrayat)
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