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On this figure, put forward by the OFCE, a little more than half would be the result of the measures taken by the government. This additional purchasing power should support consumption and therefore growth this year.
The French should feel the effects of government measures on their portfolios. According to a recent study by the French Observatory of Economic Conditions (OFCE), their purchasing power will rise by 2.5% this year, or an average of 850 euros per household. Of this amount, 440 euros will be the sole fact of the measures taken by Emmanuel Macron. This is an average, which means that all French will not be housed in the same sign. Nevertheless, the expected increase in purchasing power will be the strongest since 2007, a period of strong growth and implementation of the TEPA law [qui prévoyait entre autres l’allègement des cotisations sociales sur les heures supplémentaires, ndlr] under Nicolas Sarkozy ", promises the OFCE.
»READ ALSO – Purchasing power increases in France … but not everywhere
In total, the government puts on the table nearly 12 billion euros to boost purchasing power. Some socio-fiscal measures were expected, such as the second reduction of the housing tax or the reduction of full-year employee contributions. But last winter, emergency measures were announced to try to calm the growl of the "yellow vests". Édouard Philippe had initially promised a super premium conversion or a boost to the replacement of the boiler, and in early December, the suspension of the rise in the carbon tax. Emmanuel Macron had started with a new battery of measures such as the accelerated revaluation of the activity premium, the tax exemption and the desocialization of overtime or the decline of the CSG for some retirees. In total, these emergency measures alone represent 10.3 billion euros.
An increase in real wages
Emmanuel Macron also urged companies to make a move with the payment of a bonus tax free. At this point, more than 200,000 companies have responded to this call and more than one billion euros has been distributed. According to the OFCE, this premium, coupled with a slowdown in inflation, will allow a "significant" increase in real wages (+ 1.5%) this year. The study does not take into account the new measures that could be announced by Emmanuel Macron in the coming days, after the Great National Debate.
READ ALSO – The Macron Premium Sustained
But what will households do with this money? According to the OFCE, they should consume (+ 1.6%), even if this "dynamic" consumption will increase less than income. Cautious, the French will also put aside. The savings rate is expected to average 15.1%, 0.8 percentage points higher than over the 2013-2018 period. "In the end, supported by domestic demand in acceleration, the GDP would increase on average 1.5% in 2019, despite a negative contribution of foreign trade," believe know the researchers of the OFCE, which are more optimistic than the government that is targeting 1.4% growth this year. According to them, the budgetary measures put in place for purchasing power alone will support growth of 0.5 point of GDP in 2019.
SEE ALSO – The "Macron Premium" in numbers
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