[ad_1]
The French economy recorded a growth of 0.4% in the third quarter, with growth in gross domestic product (GDP) accelerating compared to 0.2% in the first and second quarters, according to the second estimate published Thursday by INSEE. As in the first estimate, the growth acquis for the whole of 2018, ie the evolution of GDP if activity stagnated completely in the fourth quarter, amounts to 1.5%.
The government still expects growth of 1.7% looks optimistic for 2018, especially that most statistical and forecasters predict a slowdown in activity than the executive.
INSEE anticipates 0.4% growth in the last quarter
INSEE and the Banque de France are currently forecasting growth of around 0.4% in the fourth quarter. Compared to the first estimate published at the end of October, the contribution to the growth of final domestic demand was confirmed at 0.5 point and that of foreign trade was revised up slightly (0.2 point against 0.1 point previously). ). The changes in inventories, for their part, weighed a further -0.3 points (compared with -0.2 points in the first estimate).
In detail, total production of goods and services accelerated in the third quarter (+ 0.6% after + 0.3%), as a result of a recovery in the production of goods (which rose by 0%). 6% after a decline of 0.3% in the previous quarter) and a slight acceleration in services. Manufacturing output rebounded, rising 0.7% after a 0.1% decline in the second quarter, driven by a sharp rebound in refinery output, back in the green after being severely curtailed by maintenance operations in the second quarter.
Rebound of business investment
In the third quarter, the rebound in household consumption is slightly less pronounced than previously announced, with an increase of 0.4% against 0.5% in first estimate. It had registered a decline in the second quarter, an unusual phenomenon related in particular to strikes in transport, especially the SNCF. Beyond household consumption, domestic demand in the third quarter was also fueled by the confirmed dynamism of business investment (+ 1.6%, against + 1.4% in first estimate).
Household investment, which essentially covers housing expenditure, fell for the first time since spring 2015 (with a decline revised to -0.1% against -0.2% in first estimate ), in connection with the decline in housing starts since the end of 2017, says INSEE.
(with agencies)
[ad_2]
Source link
