[ad_1]
STATE OF PLAY – Since the beginning of the movement, some yellow jackets emphasize the decline in their purchasing power against the rising cost of living to justify the grumbling. A real situation, but one that is not to be put at the sole expense of the current government, far from it.
– Vincent Michelon
French people tighten their belts at the end of the month and feel that their situation will continue to deteriorate. Yellow Vests have often expressed, since the beginning of the movement, the feeling of experiencing a steady decline in their purchasing power and preparing to suffer more next year. Some blame the primary responsibility on the current government. But what do the numbers say?
The OFCE, an independent macroeconomic forecasting agency, published a note last September on purchasing power, taking into account the impact of the measures taken since the beginning of the five-year period with an expected direct effect on the purse. the French. The note incorporates several reforms such as the reduction of the housing tax, the abolition of employee contributions, the rise of the CSG, the elimination of the TFR, and more generally the drop in direct taxation (- 9.4 billion euros). euros) but also, conversely, the increase in the ecological tax on fuel from January 2019, the de-indexation of pensions or the rise in taxes on cigarettes.
For the first full year of the five-year period, 2018, the impact of all measures is "almost zero". According to OFCE calculations, however, purchasing power will be increased in 2019 as a result of measures to reduce direct taxation and the second installment of the reduction of the housing tax in November 2019, even offset by the increase in the CSG, the de-indexation of retirement pensions or the reform of the calculation of housing allowances.
In total, the measures "will support the purchasing power of households" to the tune of 3.5 billion euros in 2019
However, the OFCE notes, this development can only be understood by taking into account the level of income of households, certain categories – as, in the case of employee contributions, managers – having benefited more than others from these measures. . The reforms could therefore generate "winners and losers" next year.
The evolution of French purchasing power also corresponds to trends that go well beyond Emmanuel Macron's five-year plan.
INSEE statistics give, for example, indicators of this evolution over the long term. Between 1960 and 2017, the share of spending called "constraints" (housing, electricity, gas, telephone, insurance …) would have increased from 12% to 30% of the household budget – specialists believe that the share of housing remains dumped in this count. Transport expenses, for their part, went from 3% to 14% of the budget over this long period (25% for fuel).
The most disadvantaged French are also the most affected by this increase in the cost of living: the expenditure constraints can reach, in households living under the poverty line, up to 61% of the budget. In a context of a return to inflation, fuel and food expenses have been increasing all the more heavily for these households for several months.
Vincent Michelon
Update :
created:
[ad_2]
Source link
