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After the incidents on the Champs Elysees on Saturday, the disputed designation of eight representatives of Yellow Vests and the interview Tuesday with the Minister of Ecological and Solidarity Transition François de Rugy, where is the movement?
How to interpret the mobilization?
The first day of protest of "yellow vests", Saturday, November 17, had gathered near 300,000 protesters in all of France. In the days that followed, a few thousand protesters pursued actions including sporadic blockages of oil depots.
But the real act II took place last Saturday where more than 100,000 protesters have taken over their shares, including 8,000 in Paris.
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"It is hard to tell if the movement of yellow vests is a success or notVincent Tiberj, a political scientist and sociologist at the Institut d'Etudes Politiques de Bordeaux, comments: "Are the 100,000 people who demonstrated last Saturday a lot or a little? Is the movement not running out of steam? Does not the movement somewhere, because we researchers, you journalists, they politicians, are still attentive to the blocking operations? "Asks the specialist.
What popularity with the French?
From the beginning, the movement has strong support in public opinion. On November 1st, 78% of French considered justified "the call to block the roads November 17 to protest the rise in the price of diesel, according to an Odoxa-Dentsu Consulting survey conducted for France Info and Le Figaro.
Another survey, conducted on November 21 and 22, gave a similar percentage. 77% of French respondents found the movement justified and the meeting scheduled for Saturday 25 November in Paris.
Today, after more than ten days of mobilization of "Yellow Vests", 66% of respondents still say they support the movement according to an Opinion Way survey released this Wednesday.
How can the movement evolve?
The designation, via Facebook, in a rather opaque way, of "eight referents" supposed to represent the Yellow Vests, has thrown disorder into this heterogeneous movement born out of any political or union framework.
Ex- "Yellow Vest" in Toulouse, Benjamin Cauchy, lamented a certain "sectarianism" and a "radicalization" in these "self-proclaimed spokespersons" and decided to create another movement. Even skepticism in the Côtes d'Armor where the local spokesman for "yellow vests", Tristan Lozach, challenged Sunday Maxime Nicolle, from the department and member of the "delegation" national.
"We know that his nickname on Facebook is Fly Rider but we have never seen him Nobody saw him, we do not want to be represented by him, we reject him completely"
With the designation of "eight official communicators", the movement, which claims to be leaderless and apolitical, is he at a turning point?? "This is a very old problem for any political movement," says political scientist Vincent Tiberj. "A social movement is something that comes from the bottom-up, necessarily when a structuring takes place, there is a loss of membership." Gradually, people take responsibilities, start to interact with elected officials, go to professionalize and thus exclude in the movement ".
So far, the movement, with very diverse demands, which now go beyond the question of the price of fuel, could "live from these ambiguities, its heterogeneity", explains Vincent Tiberj. But "as soon as you enter an organization, you create homogeneity, a hierarchy, negotiations. You lose some of the ambiguities that allowed the movement to hold ".
After a while, the movement finds itself forced to have a form, to create an organization, "otherwise it collapses". "What's left of 'Nuit Debout' today?" Says the political scientist. "There remains a political culture. But since there was no organization behind, all these discussions were lost. Today, Indignados in Spain is only remembered by the Podemos party. While certainly the Indignados were more numerous than Podemos. So maybe what we will retain yellow vests, it may be this 'organization of lemons' that will succeed to settle permanently … or not. Maybe in six months we hear more about it. "
What are the next deadlines?
On Tuesday, two of the eight Yellow Vest representatives met with the Minister of the Ecological and Solidarity Transition. At the end of this interview, Priscilla Ludosky, one of the movement's spokespersons, said she had asked Francois de Rugy for another meeting, this time with the "government spokesman or the prime minister".
Asked this Wednesday morning on RMC / BFMTV, Édouard Philippe said he was ready to receive a delegation.
"If there is a representative delegation of 'yellow vests' that wishes to be received, then I will do it" Édouard Philippe
Do these meetings with ministers give the movement more legitimacy? "You can have a form of dubbing. By receiving them, you legitimize them, you give the impression that these individuals are representative. But it can only work if, and only if, people who participate in the blockage feel representedby these individuals, "decrypts Vincent Tiberj.
Saturday's day could be decisive for the future. The two representatives of the Yellow Vests who spoke with François de Rugy confirmed a new mobilization on 1 December
"There will be the rendezvous, as last Saturday, at the Champs-Elysees.The wish of all 'yellow vests' is to continue every Saturday like that, Champs-Elysees". Eric Drouet
The numbers will be scrutinized. "If next Saturday, there are only 50,000 people, it will be over," predicts Jerome Sainte-Marie, president of polling institute PollingVox. "But what gave birth to the movement – dissatisfaction and anger over government policy – will not go away anytime soon," he says.
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