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WASHINGTON – President Trump's trade war is expected to temporarily support economic growth in the United States, in part because Beijing has been trying to beat Trump's tariffs by supplying soybeans, crude oil and crude oil. other US exports
. predict that the gross domestic product for the second quarter could reach 5% when preliminary figures will be released on July 27th. The trade gap between the US and China has narrowed as more US products have been shipped to Beijing before tariffs. effective July 6th.
But both effects should be short-lived, and the short-term economic improvement could turn into a long-term loss if both countries continue their threats of continuing escalating tariffs. one against the other. 19659002] "They will dance, they will sing, they will say, look at the fall of the trade deficit in the second quarter," said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist for Pantheon Macroec onomic.
The United States is engaged in multiple trade wars at once by imposing tariffs on metals from the European Union, Mexico, Canada and other countries. But it is fighting an even greater battle with China, a conflict that threatens to engulf large swathes of the world's two largest economies. The Trump administration has accused the Chinese of a variety of commercial abuses, including the theft of intellectual property and denying US companies equal access to the Chinese market. Mr. Trump has already imposed 25 percent tariffs on Chinese products for a value of $ 34 billion and has threatened to hit up to $ 450 billion in Chinese products with taxes.
Tuesday, the administration publishes a list of 200 billion additional dollars in products that could face tariffs as early as September. China had already reacted by applying tariffs on soybeans, pork, automobiles and other products and reported that its next wave of duties could include US oil exports.
Growth in the United States remains strong. But they blurred global markets and blurred buying habits between countries, in a way that temporarily helped growth in the United States.
The value of US soybean exports more than doubled in May compared with the Census Bureau figures, resulting from a surge in Chinese sales and a decline in soybean prices. Data on soybean inspections exported from the Department of Agriculture suggest that the surge continued until June, peaking the week before Mr. Trump imposed his tariffs.
Mr. Shepherdson projects a soybean boost at 0.6% of America's annualized economic growth rate
Soybean producers and economists say it's hard to see anything else that tariff anticipation pushes for increased purchases of soybeans
"They expected tariffs to be put in place by the United States, and then they would retaliate", said Ron Moore, a farmer from Illinois who is the president of the American Soybean Association. "My guess is that they were trying to get as much beans as they could in storage before these tariffs were applied to imports from the United States."
Trump has attempted to address the concerns of soybean farmers in a pair of tweets Wednesday in Brussels, where he is attending a NATO summit. It seemed to refer to a 40% drop in soybean prices from $ 615 per metric ton in 2012 – a slight peak – to $ 368 in November 2016.
Chinese buyers also stocked other branded products for rates. In May, US crude oil exports to China more than tripled compared with the previous year. According to an badysis of Panjiva census data, a company that monitors global trade, exports of some auto parts for China-made vehicles also jumped.
The anticipation of Trump administration tariffs on steel and aluminum US buyers are supplying foreign steel this year. Steel imports from Mexico, Canada and the European Union increased by about 25% compared to the previous year, before the decision of the administration to impose a 25% tariff on steel imports from these countries at the end of the month. . Steel imports from China rose 5% for the year; Mr Trump imposed tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum in March, after his administration had proposed them earlier in the year.
US steel exports also increased this year by 4% over the previous year. 19659002] Economic growth has accelerated since Mr. Trump took office, and he likes to predict that it will only increase in the years to come. Some of its economic advisers have focused on high growth expectations in the second quarter, a sign that government policies, such as tax cuts, deregulation and trade strategy, are spurring the pace of growth. growth
. figures, "said the president in Wisconsin at the end of last month." I think we'll see 4s. And I think we'll see a 5 too. "
Chris Rogers, research director at Panjiva, said that "China's US exports will inevitably slow growth, as Chinese buyers find new suppliers, especially for commodities.
"Starting July 6, why would you pay more for crude oil, when you could "Get to Saudi Arabia or Iran?", Said Mr Rogers. Why would you pay more for soy when you could get them from Brazil?
Carl Weinberg, chief economist of the high-frequency economy, wrote in a research note this week that oil and oil products affected US exports up to here by Chinese tariffs, and that China will have no problem replacing them: "There is a lot of bidding there with less than 25% more than US prices," he wrote. "
million. Moore, the soybean farmer, said the Chinese were "pretty clever commodity buyers" and that he was expecting purchases to fall now that tariffs were in place. He lowered the price of soybeans on the world market, which cost his farm more than $ 100,000 for this year's harvest, he said.
He and other members of the soybean badociation traveled to Washington this week. planned to disperse on Capitol Hill, imploring lawmakers to work to stop escalation.
"This is our # 1 topic that worries us," said Mr. Moore. "He even put the Farm Bill on the taillight because it's so difficult for farmers, this volatility."
Congress members have expressed concern over tariffs, and on Wednesday they have took a step to warn the administration against further escalations of its trade war. A bipartisan group of 88 senators voted in favor of a non-binding resolution that would be a first step toward Congress's veto power over future rates imposed for reasons of national security, such as steel and aluminum.
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