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This is a frequent refrain among defenders and opponents of a $ 15 minimum wage: Just look at the studies.
As St. Paul's officials plan to raise the minimum wage throughout the city and how quickly the debate points to the experience of other cities as evidence of positive or negative results.
A problem with studies of a minimum wage of $ 15: None exists.
Of course, there is a lot of guesswork based on preliminary data, including rival studies that have resulted in largely contradictory conclusions about the Seattle experiment so far.
But no city has set up a minimum wage of $ 15, not at all, not even Seattle, which inspired efforts to fight In June 2014, employers will not be required to pay 15 $ hour before the year 2021.
In Minneapolis, where the first of seven annual salary increases took effect this year, Small employers will not be forced to pay $ 15 from the employer. hour or more until 2024.
"It remains to be seen in Minneapolis what the impacts will be as we get closer to the $ 15 figure," said Courtney Blanchard, a lawyer with Nilan Johnson Lewis who works in working closely with Minneapolis employers on compliance. "The job market is a challenge, and to some extent employers in some industries can already raise their salaries to attract talent. I think we have not seen the effects yet. "
"NO EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS … POSSIBLE"
Many academic studies have examined the impact of more modest federal and state wage increases in previous years and found little 75 cents or more after years of stagnant wages is not usually a big problem in terms of salaries.
However, a November 2015 report from the National Employment Law Project summarizes the challenge of predicting the net effect of the recent wave of more aggressive wage laws, which is not likely to have a negative impact. have not yet been fully implemented.
"The essential of the a rigorous research on the minimum wage of the last two decades shows that federal, state and local wage increases that have been "Newly voted laws at $ 15 in cities like Seattle, San Francisco and Los Angeles, however, increase wages more that (the) previous policies badyzed. … And because these laws have not been fully integrated, no empirical badysis has been possible yet. "
Nevertheless, academics have attempted to better understand how the incremental wage increases of $ 15 have affected workers, businesses, and even
Does the Seattle Experience – a city in full growth with a strong technology center and a population of more than 700,000 – will closely match that of St. Paul, a city less than half its size – some have their doubts, but a growing number of academic papers examines the trends to date.
Here is a quick round of academic studies on the minimum wage:
WAGES HAVE NOT MAINTAINED PACE
The Economic Policy Institute – a Washington, DC-based think tank that advocates faster wage growth and higher labor standards, emphasized how much the power to purchase the minimum wage has eroded with the time. lowest-level workers earn less money than they've ever done, adjusting inflation.
In fact, the power to purchase the minimum wage peaked in 1968, the equivalent of $ 10.85 in dollars to economists. Some experts have said that it would take $ 12 or more to track the cost of living.
The federal minimum wage – $ 7.25 – has not increased since July 2009. Minnesota's minimum wage is $ 9.65 for large employers and $ 7.87 for small ones. The state defines small employers as businesses with gross annual revenues of less than $ 500,000.
Seattle's $ 15 minimum was phased in over almost seven years, with salary increases every January. Salaries reached $ 15 this year for large employers and will reach $ 15 by 2019 for small employers who do not offer any medical benefits or tips. All employers must pay at least $ 15 / hour in 2021.
And what is the definition of "small employer"? This can vary widely by municipality, but in Seattle it means all businesses with 500 or fewer employees. In other words, an important part of the city has not yet touched 15 dollars.
SEATTLE'S BAD NEWS – AND GOOD NEWS, TOO
The impact in Seattle of this day is a bit murky – as in difficult to interpret.
A Washington University Study The disadvantages of the wage increases for Seattle's low-wage workers outweighed the 3-to-1 benefits, which cost the worker average $ 125 per month in hours lost
. ] A concurrent study from the University of California at Berkeley, however, focused even more closely on the food industry, and found that rising wages had not occurred. 39; major impact on hiring in restaurants. In fact, a food columnist from the Seattle Times reported opening more than 40 restaurants during a six-week period last summer.
This is good or bad news, depending on how you cut it
. Seattle increased salaries from $ 9.47 to $ 11 hourly in 2015, and then to $ 13 in 2016.
The 63-page report from the University of Washington, published the. Last year for the city of Seattle by the National Bureau of Economic Hourly wages, which increased by 3%, did not offset these losses.
"The payroll has dropped by 6%. these jobs, which implies that the minimum wage ordinance lowered the wages of low-wage employees by $ 125 a month on average in 2016, "the report says.
Curiously, the first wage hike did not have such a dramatic impact. at the University of Washington study: We estimate a zero effect when we badyze employment in the restaurant industry at all salary levels, comparable to many previous studies .
For technical reasons, the University of Washington excluded employers with multiple workplaces.The researchers noted that single-site employers employ 62 percent of the workforce.
Critics say the study leaves out a cornerstone of the industry: chain stores. The exclusion of restaurant chains and other multisite employers could skew the results, especially if some fast-food and retail chains were growing as smaller employers dwindled.According to a criticism from the Economic Policy Institute, which disputed this approach and other aspects of the study methodology.
A Separate Study of the Center on Employment and Wage Dynamics 39, University of California at Berkeley on the Seattle Food Services Industry, which badyzed county and city data from 2009 to 2016 and compared data with those from other regions of the world. State of Washington and the rest of the United States to build a parallel or "synthetic control."
Comparison of the two groups "Our results show that wages in food services have increased – indicating that politics has reached its peak. goal, "said the researchers." Wages have increased much less in full-service restaurants, indicating that employers have used the tip component of the law. A study of 137 wage increases across the country revealed that, while wage increases tended to eliminate paid jobs below the new wage, losses were offset by new jobs at
PRICES FOOD AND BENEFITS
Hours of employment and work are not the only areas that could be affected by a higher minimum wage.
Food prices, benefits and the quality of employment could see some affects, as well. There have also been discussions in academic circles about the "cliff of benefits" – the time when a skilled worker for public support will no longer qualify because he earns too much money .
Rising wages may gradually reduce access to public benefits for low-income workers, but the impact will vary widely depending on the circumstances of each worker and the type of benefits, such as daycare benefits, federal housing subsidies, home heating badistance and food aid. There is concern that the net effect of rising wages may actually reduce household income or quality of life.
A study conducted last year by PHI, which defends the interests of the elderly, revealed that a health care aide in New York Haven Jones, 15, right, transfers cookies to a Shelf while she talks with Production Manager Sadia Dickson at Cookie Cart in Minneapolis Thursday, Feb. 14, 2018. Jones participates in a youth training program and learns all aspects of cookie production. Jones said that she has been in the program for three months and that she is learning communication. "I love my colleagues," she said. (Jean Pieri / Pioneer Press)
DO NOT EXEMPT YOUTH WAGES
Then there is the issue of youth wages.
Should teens earn $ 15 an hour to start? Critics say bakeries, ice cream shops and other young worker employers will do the math and that it is more profitable to hire a full-time experienced adult worker than to prepare hours for them. Teen employees who may need training and supervision.
On July 18, two researchers from the National Employment Law Project, affiliated with the union, called on St. Paul to follow the example of Minneapolis and other cities to exempt youth workers from work. A minimum wage of $ 15: Do not it
Their fact sheet, posted on the NELP website, reports studies showing that minimum wage increases have had little effect. Negative effects on youth employment in the past. They noted that exemptions for training young people are often limited to 30 to 120 days, which could be an additional incentive for fast food and retail companies – industries where 100% of companies already achieve 100% of the figure. d & # 39; business. 19659002] These exemptions, they say, could also deter the hiring of older workers.
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