Grim Thanksgiving Day Covid-19 Numbers Presage Dark December in LA – Deadline

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Los Angeles County reported 5,087 new cases of Covid-19 and 37 additional deaths on Thanksgiving Day, one of the highest case totals in the entire pandemic. The number of county residents hospitalized with the coronavirus rose from 1,298 last Friday to 1,809 reported on Thanksgiving. That’s a 28% increase in 7 days.

County health services director Dr Christina Ghaly said on Wednesday the number of people hospitalized with the virus had jumped 70% in the past two weeks. The county currently registers an average of 300 new admissions per day.

There are approximately 24,000 hospital beds in the county, according to Los Angeles County Scientific Director Dr. Paul Simon. If the rise in hospitalizations were to continue at the current rate, by the end of the year there would still be 10,000 Covid-19 patients in county hospitals. They would occupy half of the beds. That’s apart from all the other illnesses that send people to the hospital.

But the number of cases continues to increase. This means that the number of hospitalizations will also increase well beyond 300 per day. In fact, health officials say 12% of those infected end up in hospital two weeks later. This means that, using the current case rate, in two weeks Los Angeles will see an additional 610 people hospitalized daily. And that doesn’t account for any increases resulting from Thanksgiving gatherings.

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“Based on the current estimate for (the rate of transmission of the virus) and assuming that there is no change in people’s behavior that would affect transmissions, there will likely be a shortage of bedding. ‘hospitals, and especially intensive care unit beds, over the next two to four weeks,’ Ghaly said.

She said hospitals have “cutting edge” plans to increase the number of beds, but the availability of health workers to staff those beds and treat patients – especially those in the ICU – is much higher. limited.

The county state-adjusted seven-day test average positivity rate was 7.3% on Thursday, up from 6.6% Wednesday and 5.3% a week ago. The county was reporting a rate of about 3.9% in early November. That may not sound like a lot, but a 2% increase in positivity – over the past week – in a county of 10 million people could mean up to 200,000 more infections. This adds to the number of basic infections and in just one week.

The cumulative total of coronavirus cases in the county stands at 383,275, with 7,580 deaths.

The staggering numbers came a day after a controversial in-person meal ban went into effect, with Los Angeles County health officials painting a dire picture of the current outbreak, saying the rate of transmission had reached its highest level since March and could overwhelm hospitals. in a month.

“We continue to be at a very difficult time in this pandemic, as is the case with much of the United States,” County health official Dr Muntu Davis said on Wednesday. “In fact, our situation is getting worse by the day.”

According to current county estimates, each COVID-19 patient in the county transmits the virus to an average of 1.27 people – the highest transmission rate the county has seen since March, before safety protocols such as the face coverings and social distancing are in place. .

Based on this rate of transmission, health officials estimate that one in 145 people in the county is now infected with the virus and transmits it to others.

“This does not include people currently hospitalized or isolated at home,” Ghaly said. “It’s the estimate of people who are on the move and infect others. They may not know they are infected. They may know they are infected and are not isolating themselves. But they’re out there and they’re exposing other people to the virus.

Davis described other dire numbers – including a 67% increase in reported coronavirus outbreaks in general workplaces in the first two weeks of November and a 200% increase in outbreaks in food establishments during the same period. He said 42 new outbreaks were reported to the county in the past day alone.

On Sunday, the five-day average of new daily COVID-19 cases in the county surpassed 4,000, crossing a threshold set the previous week to trigger the closure of in-person meals at county restaurants, which were already limited to seats in outside. This closure will take effect at 10 p.m. Wednesday and will remain in place for three weeks.

Davis again stressed the need for the restriction on Wednesday, saying the current spike in cases makes it imperative to limit the potential for the virus to spread.

“To slow this disease down at this stage, by limiting certain activities that can easily lead to many additional cases, such as eating al fresco in restaurants, and reducing the number of people indoors in other settings, we let’s try to lower our case rate so we can move to a less restrictive level and reopen more businesses, ”Davis said. “We all know what to do, but with the increase in cases, there aren’t enough people doing it.”

Eliminating in-person meals, even on a temporary basis, is all the rage among business owners. The county supervisory board on Tuesday confirmed the restriction on a 3-2 vote, prompting an outcry from restaurant owners and others calling it the death knell for small businesses.

The county, meanwhile, may soon pass even tighter restrictions on a wider range of businesses. On Monday, the county’s five-day average of new cases surpassed 4,500, a threshold that was expected to trigger a “Safer Targeted Home Order” that would ban all public and private gatherings and impose strict capacity limits on stores .

It was unclear when the county might enact such an ordinance, and although he stressed the urgency of controlling transmission of the virus, Davis was not shy about when that would happen on Wednesday. He said health officials were still in discussions with the supervisory board about the order.

County Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer told the board on Tuesday that health officials recommended that the order do the following:

-Ban all public and private gatherings of people not belonging to the same household, except outdoor religious services and outdoor demonstrations, which will require masks and social distancing

-Set occupancy limits for outdoor retail businesses at 50% capacity with masks and social distancing required

-Set occupancy limits for essential indoor retail at 35% capacity with masks and social distancing required

-Set occupancy limits for non-essential indoor retail at 20% capacity with masks and social distancing required

-Keep beaches, trails and parks open with masks and social distancing required except while swimming

-Allow walking, running, cycling and playing outdoors with masks and social distances

-Keep outdoor recreation facilities open to members of the same household by using masks and social distancing

-Close pools that are open to more than one household other than for regulated swimming

-Closing or keeping closed certain non-essential businesses, including office businesses, card rooms, clubs, bars, lounges, playgrounds other than in daycares or schools, theaters, shows, sporting events, bowling alleys and arcades

-Allow child care centers and day care centers, K-12 schools and day camps, higher education institutions, libraries, youth sports and professional non-spectator sports to operate largely by the rules current

-Continue to respect the state curfew prohibiting all gatherings with members of other households from 10 a.m. to 5 a.m. other than essential activities, exempting homeless people

A statement from the county public health department reminded business owners on Thursday that “inspectors will be absent over the weekend to ensure safety measures are followed.

City News Service contributed to this report.



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