Harley-Davidson Gains Coming. Here is what to expect.

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Harley Davidson

should release its first quarter results Tuesday, before the market opens.

The Harley stock (symbol: HOG) has risen 19.8% so far this year until close Thursday, against a gain of 15.9% for the S & P 500.

Here is an overview of Wall Street's expectations and recent history.

Most analysts are neutral on Harley shares. Out of 23 analyst ratings, there are 18 holdings, 4 purchases and 1 sale, according to Bloomberg. According to consensus estimates, Wall Street's profits would rise to 86 cents a share this quarter and would represent a $ 1.21 billion business figure, according to Bloomberg.

Harley is struggling with fewer and fewer Americans on motorbikes. The company's US retail sales declined for eight consecutive quarters.

The drop in sales led an analyst to suggest that the company should manufacture vans instead of its electric motorcycles.

In the fourth quarter of last year, Harley had sales of half a million dollars, close to zero cents per share, despite sales forecasts exceeding $ 1.15 billion. Analysts surveyed by FactSet had predicted earnings per share of 28 cents on a $ 1.05 billion business figure.

Investors were waiting for more details on a trade deal with China, which would help stocks of commercially-sensitive vehicles such as Harley.

Another potential benefit for Harley is the season of tax refunds. An analyst at Wedbush Securities wrote in March that a record level of tax rebate could be a drag on the sale of expensive consumer goods like Harley.

Not all analysts are optimistic. Last month, RBC Capital Markets analyst Joseph Spak wrote in a note to his clients that he feared that Harley's retail sales in the US would drop by 10% in the first quarter, which would its ninth consecutive decline.

Earlier this month,
Wells Fargo
of the
Timothy Condor downgraded Harley to Market Perform from Outperform. He added that the risk / return "after the rally" is now less attractive at current levels, given the continuing weakness of the motorcycle market, price uncertainty and the long stabilization trajectory ".