Dengue cases can be predicted using mapping models



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TRIBUNJOGJA.COM – Dengue fever is a disease caused by a viral infection of the flavivirus genus that is transmitted from person to person by the bite of the Aedes mosquito.

DIY is one of the provinces of Indonesia that has problems controlling transmission. According to the 2004-2013 report of the Ministry of Health, DIY ranks third nationally with an incidence rate of 95.99 per 100,000 population, well below the national target of 51 per 100 000 inhabitants.

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Three of the five DIY districts / cities, namely Kota Yogyakarta, Sleman and Bantul, are regions with high levels of IR. doctor of medical sciences and health, FKKMK UGM, Agus Kharmayana Rubaya mentioned that of 206 villages / kelurahan in three regencies / cities in Yogyakarta, n urban villages identified as high-risk, 28 medium-risk and 147 low-risk [19659002] According to him, the group that presents a high risk of dengue transmission, the weather factor plays an important role in the prediction of the number of cases that will occur

. "The air temperature is related to the accelerated rate of larval development in adult mosquitoes, which affects early infections and the increase in the average number of bites," Agus said. during a promotional examination at FKKMK UGM on Tuesday 17. In his dissertation entitled Dengeu Case Dynamics as a basis for the development of a regional model of risk mapping in DIY, Agus mentions that the characteristics of the region are correlated with the risk zone of dengue transmission.

Urban areas with population density the height according to him has a greater risk than the campaign "This confirms and reinforces the fact that it is related to the spread of dengue," he said.

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medium and medium risk through a regional model of risk mapping, the number of cases in a given month can be predicted linearly based on the number of cases in the same month of the previous year

As the low risk indicates that the number of dengue cases in a given month can be predicted It states however that Dengue control is closely related to population mobility between regions, so a multi-badytic approach needs to be carried out in districts and cities. (*)

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