According to one report, cancer rates could double by 2045 due to population growth and aging

The growth and aging of the population will contribute to an explosion in the number of cancer cases, or even a doubling, between 2015 and 2045, if current rates continue to apply.

This is the scenario described in the latest annual report of the National Cancer Registry (NCR), where both factors are already generating a "major increase" in the number of cancer cases diagnosed each year.

The report found:

• Between 2016 and 2018, an estimated 41,075 new cases of cancer were diagnosed each year, an average of 112 people per day.
• Between 2013 and 2015, an average of 8,875 people died from invasive cancer, or about one person dying of cancer every hour.
• Breast and prostate cancers were the most commonly diagnosed invasive cancers in 2016-2018.
• During the 2014-2016 period, approximately 14% of cancer cases, excluding non-melanoma skin cancers, presented themselves in an emergency at the time of diagnosis.

The report states that emergency presentations "may result from a lack of awareness of symptoms in patients and are usually badociated with a more advanced stage".

Some of the news is good – the number of cancer survivors is also expected to rise sharply – said Kerri Clough-Gorr, director of NCR, stressing the need to plan their long-term support and follow-up.

"We must go beyond our current capabilities …. to better understand the patient's experience, including quality of life, progression and development of the disease, as well as long-term treatments, "said Professor Clough-Gorr.

The Irish Cancer Society (ICS) has described these figures as a "wake-up call" that should prompt immediate action.

CEO Averil Power said that even if the forecasts are bleak, they must not become a reality.

"By improving our lifestyles and using free screening, each of us can dramatically reduce our risk of cancer," said Ms. Power.

The report estimates that the number of invasive cancers (excluding NMSC) rose to about 22,640 cases diagnosed each year between 2016 and 2018 (12,080 men and 10,560 women), or 33,460 cases, all cancers. confused.

This is almost double the number of cases registered since the registry was created more than 25 years ago.

The proportion of the population most likely to be diagnosed with cancer, those aged 65 and over, has increased by more than 50% over the last 25 years.

The report points to significant improvements in cancer treatment, and earlier detection means that the likelihood of survival for many forms of cancer continues to increase.

According to current estimates, approximately 173,000 survivors of cancer previously diagnosed with invasive cancer were alive at the end of 2016, excluding NMSCs.

On the basis of population growth and aging, the number of cancers (excluding CNSM) is expected to increase to 43,000, a general doubling.

However, Professor Clough Gorr said that the overall increase by 2045 could be more modest – about 50% – if recent trends in some cancers (for example, lung cancer rates and the prostate in humans) are continuing.

The annual report of the NCR, Cancer in Ireland 1994-2016, which contains estimates for 2016-2018, can be found at the following address: ncri.ie