[ad_1]
Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa and the ruling Zanu-PF hope that a credible victory in the July 30 elections will legitimize the power (party and state) that they have won "coup d'etat". State "which overthrew its predecessor Robert Mugabe last November. 19659002] With the victory, they say, donors and dollars will flock to the country that they have resurrected from almost two moribund decades. Zimbabwe is now "open to business" and will prosper. The resurrection of Zanu-PF will therefore be complete
But a new study suggests that Zanu-PF should block all plans for premature celebration. The latest one shows that in the space of a month, the Nelson Chamisa MDC-Alliance has filled the gap with Zanu-PF. The surveys are conducted by Afrobarometer, an independent research network that conducts public opinion surveys across Africa and its Zimbabwean partner, Mbad Public Opinion Institute, a non-profit, non-governmental research organization.
If respondents were to vote now Mnangagwa would receive 40 percent of the vote and opposition leader Nelson Chamisa would take 37 percent. Potential voters still undecided or not saying are at 20%. Split it and you get a race 50/47
The numbers are very close. If this is not a victory for the MDC-Alliance, it looks like a second presidential run. The MDC-Allaince has a 49% to 26% advance in towns and villages and in the countryside, the figures are 30% in opposition to the 48% of Zanu-PF. In parliament, Zanu-PF would get 41% of the 36 members of the MDC-Alliance. This is a big change from May's investigation.
Given the MDC-Alliance momentum, hopes for Zanu-PF's post-Mugabe resurrection. There is a lot to negotiate about the ability of both parties to manage this interregnum.
Great compromises will be negotiated, ranging from coalition governments, which, according to the survey, are supported by 60% of respondents, to amnesties for leading crooks and killers.
The agreements reached may well be central to the success or otherwise of the election. This is because this election involves recovering the hard core of democracy from an army-dominated regime. It's about cleaning up generations of fear.
It is a difficult task at any time. It is even more difficult when it took a coup to withdraw its main source.
Mnangagwa has failed spectacularly to win past elections in his own constituencies, running for parliament three times and losing twice.
The Zanu-PF factions Before the coup, the Generation-40 group that supported Grace Mugabe for the party and the president of the state and Lacoste, who supported Mnangagwa, are fighting always in lines more ethnic than ever. Some of the losers of the Generation 40 group left the party to form the National Patriotic Front.
Although the perpetrators were not found, the explosion of Zanu-PF's Bulawayo rally at the end of June killed two people. missed a whole step of luminaries, might suggest that the party's injuries have not healed yet.
And the soldiers do not agree.
If the military side of the post-coup stamp pact in the Zanu-PF by losing an election, and thus gaining access to more wealth than more power can bring, the free and fair dimensions of the electoral contest would be considerably decreased. Is a repeat of the post-election chaos of mid-2008, when at least 170 people were killed and nearly 800 were beaten or raped?
To complicate matters, there is no guarantee that hungry and angry junior officers would follow
Mnangagwa could be at the mercy of the soldier. Some suggest that Constantino Chiwenga, the mercenary vice president and – unconstitutionally – defense minister might be among them.
Others argue that the two leaders need each other if the regime will keep the promises of a proper election
International reengagement
And as George Charamba, the permanent secretary of the Zimbabwe for information, said:
This election aims to restore international reengagement and legitimacy …. It must be flawless, transparent, free, fair, consistent with international standards, without violence and therefore universally recognized as an instrument of foreign policy … -engagement and legitimacy; we make politics at a higher level.
This is a clarion call for a free and fair poll. If the election does not meet these expectations and its results are tight, legitimacy could be maintained with carefully calculated agreements. Perhaps the widely expected unity government during the coup could reappear.
Chamisa and the MDC (the alliance is made up of seven parties, most of them separated from Morgan Tsvangirai's MDC) seem to continue their momentum. won by challenging the management of the contest by the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission. The alliance challenged the neutrality of the commission and raised concerns about the accuracy of the voters' role
. All his allegations do not necessarily stand up to scrutiny. The 250,000 suspected ghosts may be ducks, but as Derek Matyszak, the man of the Institute of Security Studies in Harare, argues that the role has not been released to time for primaries, none of the candidates is constitutionally valid
. Lack of police, thousands of demonstrators led by the MDC-Alliance walked to the headquarters of the commission on July 11, showing no fear.
If this dynamic continues to strengthen next week, a victory is conceivable. The same goes for presidential elections. Certainly, the party in power could win fairly, but the opposition will have to be convinced. The mode of politics for the next turn should be the restoration of peace, not war.
The bars are low – "in the west", led in this case by the UK, seemed to be happy with the winners of the coup, perhaps hoping for a renewed Zanu-PF. Perfidious Albion (Treacherous England) could end his schizophrenic career in Zimbabwe with a groan about the end of a liberal democratic dream. But the stakes are high for Zimbabweans: far more than the reputation of a minor world power past its glory.
The people of Zimbabwe face much more than damage to the reputation: perhaps the former colonial power will have a plan B that hinders.
Source: Conversation Africa
Source link
