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As we could expect, the reactions of Mark Carney's latest comments are mixed.
James Duddridge, Conservative MP for Rochford and Southend, is not a fan, arguing that the governor lacks impartiality.
James Duddridge, MP
(@JamesDuddridge)Carney looks at the Hysteria project. The timing is highly political. Discredit the independence of the role. He should resign from his MP position if he wants to take a political stance.
Some listeners today have been more impressed:
Suzanne FisherMurray
(@Fishermurray)"Our job is not hoping for the best, but to prepare for the worst," said Mark Carney, what he said this morning @ BBCRadio4 No "project hysteria" as reported @Telegraph #BrexitDeal #brexit https://t.co/JwbRDKEKh7
cricketfan
(@Batanball)#MarkCarney is a clbad act. Refuses to ride Humphrys Bait @ BBCr4today . Avoids Mogg's shameful personalization of the debate, keeps him calm and plays batting. But it is clear that #Brexit is idiocy. Time for a #peoplesvote put the adults back in charge
Carney: We must prepare for Brexit
Q: Are you worried that if the Brexit deflates, people might blame you for looking so dark and frightening everyone?
No, says Mary Carney, returning to her essential point: Great Britain must be ready for Brexit (and it is not yet the case)
[reminder: Britain’s biggest lenders all pbaded the Bank’s 2018 stress tests yesterday, meaning they could survive a disorderly Brexit]
The problem is the preparation. What people do not have to worry about is the financial system – it will be there for them.
They can focus on what is most important.
Carney ends her interview by insisting that the bank is only a child's play in the Brexit drama.
The financial system is at the service of the economy and has been for too long the central state.
What happens to this economy, very important decisions are made by others.
This is the end of the interview. I will conclude a reaction now.
Update
Q: Why is the contract with Theresa May so good?
Mark Carney plays a technocratic bat, saying it's not up to him to choose between different options:
Brexit is a unique situation in which trade relations with our main trading partner can be significantly changed. In this situation, the role of the central bank is to ensure that the financial system is prepared, said the governor.
Carney: Britain needs a transition period at Brexit
Q: Ten years ago, Congress had rejected the US bailout, the markets had plummeted, and they had quickly adopted it (that is the TARP drama of 2008). Could this happen again?
Carney insists he will not speculate on what might happen in Parliament.
But he repeats that the UK economy needs more time to prepare for life outside the EU, saying:
Parliament will determine the type of Brexit and the way forward.
It is advisable to make the transition to the form of Parliament chosen by Brexit
Update
Q: The reality is we are not ready. What happens when MPs vote against Theresa May's agreement on Brexit on 11 December?
Carney refuses to discuss hypothetical scenarios (!), But repeats that there is still a lot of work to be done to prepare for a Brexit without a transaction.
As can be said, the country's businesses and infrastructure are not yet ready.
Carney says that one needs to have an objective view of the time required for an implementation period after Brexit.
He underlined that the agreement reached last weekend allows to extend the period of implementation
Q: Is it a good idea?
From the point of view of the financial system, a period of 18 to 24 months is sufficient, says Carney (ie the basic scenario of the withdrawal agreement).
For the economy as a whole, it is up to others to say so, he adds.
Update
Carney adds that it is wise to have a "sober and objective" vision of the time it takes us to achieve our goals with Brexit.
Update
Carney: We're not trying to scare anyone
Q: But your critics say you do politics, you try to scare people … Andrew Sentance, a former policy officer at the Bank, says your badysis is "highly speculative and extreme".
Carney denies it by saying:
We have the overall responsibility to prepare the system for everything that happens, and we have been doing it since the referendum.
Parliament has asked for this badysis, but it is an badysis that aims to prepare the financial system for the Brexit form taken by the country.
Q: Do not you try to scare people into asking them to accept the kind of Brexit you want?
I do not have a preference, Carney insists.
But the Bank should "prefer a period of transition" (as in Theresa May's plan)
It is in the interest of the country to have a little time to move on to the relationship that exists.
Our contacts with companies have taught us that less than half of the companies in this country have launched their contingency plans for a Brexit without a transaction.
Q: But a business leader, perhaps the CEO of Nissan, could hear your apocalyptic scenarios and say, "My God, I have to leave here"?
Carney says that business leaders are also responsible for preparing for the worst case scenario.
They understand what the Bank says and do not interpret it badly.
Carney interviewed on Radio 4
Mark Carney's interview with John Humphrys is now part of the Today program.
Q: What is the difference between a forecast and a scenario?
The governor said it was the Bank's role to look at what could be wrong with Brexit: tariffs, port problems, declining financial markets.
He then puts these results "very negative" in a scenario, to determine what will happen to the banking sector, then to ensure that banks have more capital than necessary to absorb these losses.
Then we know, they know, and the public knows, that they are able to cope.
As Carney says:
This is not what is most likely to happen. That's what could happen if everything went wrong, and we use it to improve the situation.
Mark Carney repeatedly insisted yesterday that his Brexit badysis was a scenario and not a forecast (although this fine distinction is lost).
Larry Elliott, our economic editor, explains:
The Bank does not actually say that the economy will shrink by 8% in a single year. For this to happen, three conditions must be met: the UK will have to leave the EU without an agreement next spring; this departure would come like a thunderclap; and this would incite Brussels to take punitive measures. "That's what could happen," said Carney, "not what's most likely to happen."
Even then, it could be a last-ditch attempt to convince MPs to support Theresa May's Brexit deal, says Larry:
In the weeks leading up to the June 2016 EU referendum, the Bank and the Treasury issued warnings on the negative consequences of a possible exit vote, none of which occurred. . This time, the constituency is much smaller: the 600 or so members who will vote on the May agreement with the European Union at the beginning of next month. It looks like the last shot of the dice.
Mark Carney's badysis of Brexit hit the headlines today.
The Telegraph directs the coverage of the criticism addressed to the governor, affirming that this one triggered the "Project Hysteria".
"Mark Carney has been accused of undermining the" independence and credibility "of the Bank of England after publishing an badysis of the economic repercussions of a nonconforming deal that is so bleak. Nicknamed "project hysteria". "
Here is a complete overview:
Introduction: Bank of England under fire Brexit forecasts
Presentation of the Bank of England's Financial Stability Report and Brexit Scenario Analysis at the Bank of England in London yesterday Photograph: Will Oliver / EPA
Hello and welcome to our slippery coverage of the global economy, financial markets, the euro zone and businesses.
Mark Carney, Governor of Bank of England, is in the eye of the hurricane today after announcing that a Brexit without an agreement could plunge Britain into the worst recession since the second World War.
An badysis released last night warned that the economy would shrink by 8%, that housing prices would drop by a third, that the pound would fall to par with the US dollar and that the rates of interest would increase if Britain left the EU without agreement.
Carney's message was clear: the economy would suffer from a non-market scenario and many companies are simply not ready.
"The results of investigations and other British authorities suggest that the country is not yet fully prepared for a Brexit at the edge of a cliff."
In contrast, the Bank also provided support to Theresa May, arguing that her deal would be better for economic growth.
However, he also predicted that the GDP would have been at least 1% higher in five years if the UK had voted in favor of maintaining its mandate; a boost for those who ask for the people's vote on the final agreement.
Carney's critics (and he has attracted a few since joining the Bank in 2013) accuse him of undermining his independence and credibility.
A (unfortunately unnamed) minister told the Daily Telegraph that the badysis was "crazy, crazy and b —— s" (I do not think the "b" is about Brexit …)
Eurosceptic Jacob Rees-Mogg has been particularly criticized, calling Carney a second-rate Canadian politician, a failure that has earned him critical acclaim. He was reproached for his attempt to overthrow Theresa May.
Angela Rayner
(@AngelaRayner)Carney worked for 13 years at Goldman Sachs, former Governor of the Bank of Canada, G7 Minister, Chairman of the Financial Stability Board, a member of the Group of 30, an international organization of prominent financial and business executives. academics. Studied at Harvard, St Peters and Nuffield Oxford, Jacob can not count up to 48 ? https://t.co/HnGj7UDsRa
Secretary of Justice David Gauke also weighed in:
David Gauke
(@ David Gauke)Of course, people may disagree with the BoE's point of view. But to rule out the possibility that it is globally fair seems to be an act of faith and not a reason. https://t.co/y6z723kxFU
Anyway, Carney can defend himself – and he'll have to do it this morning. He will soon be doing Radio 4's Today program to discuss the Bank's forecasts.
L & # 39; s calendar
- 08:10 GMT: Mark Carney interviewed on Radio 4
- 10:00 GMT: consumer confidence in the euro zone released
- 13:30 GMT: US personal consumption statistics
- 19:00 GMT: Minutes of the November meeting of the US Federal Reserve
Update
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