Ethiopia: The commonalities of Ethiopia and Eritrea

An evangelical preacher brandishing the flame declared the glory of God and the Holy Book to an ecstatic crowd. It would have been an ordinary scene in many parts of the world. But in a busy street in Asmera, the capital of Eritrea, last week's episode where a pastor of a persecuted religious minority dared to gather such a crowd was very unusual [19659003] Eritrean President Issayas Afeworqi has returned from a historic visit to Ethiopia. first in 22 years, and released many of the followers of Protestant Christians who have been imprisoned for many years simply because they adore the way they chose.

The incident was one of many developments in the rapid thaw between Ethiopia and Eritrea. In the space of just two months, the telephone lines between the two countries have opened, commercial flights to Asmera have resumed, their respective embbadies have been reopened in both capitals and the roads are in the process of being maintenance to resume ground transportation. nations are also in progress. The Government Communications Office has announced that Ethiopian Airlines will purchase a 20% stake in Eritrea's flag bearer. The Foreign Ministry said that preparations for the use of the port of Assab are underway. The United States, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates played a key role in persuading leaders of both countries to ease tensions and begin dialogues.

The revival of relationships inspired jubilation among the citizens of both countries, social and cultural backgrounds. But the geopolitical and economic hurdles of the pre-war years that the leaders of both countries have to go through remain to be solved. The outstanding issues of the Algiers Agreements and the decision of the International Boundary Commission have not yet been implemented.

The current rapprochement has circumvented the major hurdle to standardization by reducing the entire equation to a shift in custody in the EPRDF leadership; the announcement by the EPRDF to make Badme without preconditions; and the apparent underwriting of Issayas to the positive motto of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (PhD), Medemer

Given the lack of good political will among leaders of both nations that lasted two decades, the situation between Ethiopia and Eritrea existed until more than a month ago as the status quo. It can therefore be avoided that there will be new losers and winners when political and socio-economic rearrangements take place. If national and geopolitical interests are not carefully delineated and harmonized, and agreements are not carefully negotiated and properly implemented, good faith alone can not sustain a positive sum.

Deepening relations between the two neighbors Eritrean side. Both will be able to channel military spending – on border surveillance and human resources – into more productive investments. And a smoother movement of goods and people across borders will create market opportunities, even more so for Eritrean investors than for Ethiopian investors. In the near future, Eritrea will benefit from the lifting of sanctions, in which Ethiopia played a determining role in its imposition

. This will undoubtedly cause complications. Eritrea's warmer relationship with Ethiopia is expected to open up the old nation – sometimes dubbed "North Korea of ​​Africa" ​​- to the global world. Cross-border trade and communications will create interdependence among states and lead to the harmonization of socio-cultural values.

Although Ethiopia is an infant democracy, it has a young population that calls for democratic reforms, close relations with multilateral institutions. who advocate a field of political equality and relatively easy access to social networking.

Eritrea remains profoundly autocratic. A nation where general elections have never been held under a single legal party and where military conscription is applied will struggle to govern a population better exposed to the global order.

While access to the Ethiopian economy is open, the Eritrean government could also find itself facing a thriving private sector with expanded economic powers. This requires more transparency, better regulation and a competent bureaucracy that can not be censored or silenced without attracting the attention of the international community.

Ethiopia also has challenges. Because of its size, the Ethiopian economy has more to lose in a scenario where the trade is simply free and unfair.

The geopolitical factors that the rapprochement of neighbors will create can not be underestimated either. The tense relations that Eritrea has with Djibouti remain unresolved. The close relations between Eritrea and Egypt and the resulting tensions with Sudan continue to create political unrest in the Horn of Africa

The Etio-Eritrean thaw has been interpreted as an important step towards a more stable horn. to be neglected either. Djibouti and Sudan will both need to be rebadured that their interests in the region will be recognized by Ethiopia as domestic sentiment warms in Eritrea.

Prime Minister Abiy deserves to be recognized for his bold openness. any policy change in relation to the five-point peace proposal presented by the late Meles Zenawi to Parliament in 2003. The decision of the EPRDF Executive Committee to unconditionally implement the decision of the Border Commission led by the United Nations political suicide with a negligible result. However, given the years that have pbaded without diplomatic relations, the regional geopolitics, the political and economic situation as well as the national audiences of the two countries have supported the thaw. a difficult business.

The governments of Ethiopia and Eritrea practice various degrees of authoritarianism and autocracy. The road to reform is a slippery slope to any authoritarian rule once the journey begins. There can be no tinkering, but a radical result of dietary changes. It will be necessary to see to what extent the leaders of the two countries are ready to accept such results.

Governments in each country must be able to ensure that regulatory and institutional capacities are able to independently verify that they are following the rules. are in place. This will require that the economic and political regimes of both countries be transparent, especially on the Eritrean side, one of the few closed regimes in the world.

Eritrea does not publish its tax budgets; the financial oversights of state-owned companies are also not adequate. International financial institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) complained themselves that they could not badess the economic performance of Eritrea given the lack of data.

Transparency, at least at the level reached by the Ethiopian economy, will have political implications that may cause the dismantling of the Eritrean regime. But the administration of Abiy should be informed that difficult decisions must be made sooner rather than later, which was not the case with Eritrea-Eritrea relations from before the war [19659021] The marriage between the two neighbors will be favorable to the relationship in which they engage. This requires respect for agreements and an adequate level of transparency for trust to take root. There is little better for both countries than seeing the consolidation of democracy, the institutionalization of the rule of law and the establishment of peace and prosperity.